{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fef54743-e5c6-4317-b4c2-2daa6fc53f55", "symbol": "MLHOT", "name": "Hotelim Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.905, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.645, "architecture_energy": 17.764, "architecture_maturity": 21.032, "architecture_confidence": 50.426, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.96, "rotation_up": 48.2, "upward_expansion": 36.48, "deceleration": 35.49, "rotation_down": 28.77, "downward_expansion": 23.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.097515, 51.325075, 50.777087, 51.170962 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 55.0, "trend_reference": 51.840031, "distance_from_trend": 0.060956, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.664787, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.352522, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.477357, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.141079, "excess_performance": 0.087767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060956, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015675, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.352522, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072697, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004774, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062266, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141079, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.192837, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 416, "relative_activity": 2.356273, "balance": 0.192837, "dry_up": 3.787879, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072184, "annualized_volatility": 0.576213, "from_high_reference": -0.026549, "from_low_reference": 0.222222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.840031, "fair_value_reference": 40.664787, "structural_low": 45.599998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.085228, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.072842, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.180556, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.091151, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.048948, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.090278, "worst_return": -0.092024, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.038774, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00557, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.039016, "worst_return": -0.116564, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.900257, "energy": 72.615768, "activity_lines": [ 48.933333, 49.8, 51.496191, 51.251183 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 48.200001, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 87.45, "trend": 50.89, "fair_value": 38.640243, "relative_strength": -7.059791, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.259866, "energy": 71.581804, "activity_lines": [ 48.733334, 49.281818, 51.155714, 51.078065 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 55.5, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 76.0, "trend": 51.04, "fair_value": 38.861339, "relative_strength": 6.066646, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.415886, "energy": 19.134942, "activity_lines": [ 50.953334, 50.223637, 51.502857, 51.375484 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 45.599998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 75.65, "trend": 50.86, "fair_value": 39.018973, "relative_strength": -13.138885, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.306824, "energy": 24.350182, "activity_lines": [ 49.44, 49.338182, 50.858095, 51.024516 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 55.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 74.75, "trend": 51.01, "fair_value": 39.240069, "relative_strength": 4.075854, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.372871, "energy": 17.968371, "activity_lines": [ 51.453333, 50.414545, 51.181905, 51.323871 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 49.562729, "volume": 419, "typical_volume": 95.7, "trend": 50.962091, "fair_value": 39.423106, "relative_strength": -7.620008, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.981795, "energy": 12.363275, "activity_lines": [ 51.054243, 50.393223, 50.942641, 51.230499 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 49.562729, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 46.3, "trend": 50.914182, "fair_value": 39.606143, "relative_strength": -7.001432, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.800637, "energy": 9.741059, "activity_lines": [ 50.617637, 50.343488, 50.734031, 51.140217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 49.562729, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 40.6, "trend": 50.966273, "fair_value": 39.779927, "relative_strength": -8.073366, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.79625, "energy": 12.077602, "activity_lines": [ 50.090183, 50.26534, 50.518931, 51.053027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 49.562729, "volume": 107, "typical_volume": 45.95, "trend": 51.018364, "fair_value": 39.943823, "relative_strength": -6.206485, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.78627, "energy": 29.821044, "activity_lines": [ 49.958547, 50.17696, 50.332104, 50.962475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.450001, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 46.1, "trend": 51.286697, "fair_value": 40.132638, "relative_strength": 1.222822, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.129876, "energy": 4.139693, "activity_lines": [ 50.858486, 50.785125, 50.543767, 51.119355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.0, "volume": 1756, "typical_volume": 133.9, "trend": 51.400031, "fair_value": 40.299337, "relative_strength": -5.443303, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.40766, "energy": 10.910952, "activity_lines": [ 50.745092, 50.685108, 50.43662, 51.036343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.0, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 158.9, "trend": 51.513364, "fair_value": 40.466036, "relative_strength": -6.624444, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.583503, "energy": 11.634728, "activity_lines": [ 50.602546, 50.56691, 50.355663, 50.946018 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.0, "volume": 416, "typical_volume": 176.55, "trend": 51.840031, "fair_value": 40.664787, "relative_strength": 0.477357, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.645367, "energy": 17.764243, "activity_lines": [ 52.097515, 51.325075, 50.777087, 51.170962 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }