{ "ticker": { "uuid": "fef8be7c-57cf-4e12-be59-f9fe73b34ada", "symbol": "600903", "name": "Guizhou Gas Group Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 55.122, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.599, "architecture_energy": 38.792, "architecture_maturity": 11.894, "architecture_confidence": 65.425, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.89, "rotation_up": 15.2, "upward_expansion": 19.77, "deceleration": 56.55, "rotation_down": 64.41, "downward_expansion": 47.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.128, 6.492861, 7.067033, 7.050018 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.31, "trend_reference": 7.000837, "distance_from_trend": -0.098679, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.129004, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.114883, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.950109, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.095989, "excess_performance": -0.052785, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098679, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004071, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.114883, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004934, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089501, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0562, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095989, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.564314, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110851872, "relative_activity": 0.823767, "balance": 1.564314, "dry_up": 1.116043, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168067, "annualized_volatility": 0.5996, "from_high_reference": -0.407103, "from_low_reference": 0.143116 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.000837, "fair_value_reference": 7.129004, "structural_low": 5.52, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00823, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.015178, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.033724, "worst_return": -0.052041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.030792, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.052957, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036585, "worst_return": -0.170782, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.07478, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.044737, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05043, "worst_return": -0.109193, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027859, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001406, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095946, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093294, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.300874, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222264, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02269, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 8.678421, "volume": 28814229, "typical_volume": 45989726.15, "trend": 8.128162, "fair_value": 9.183612, "relative_strength": 4.986229, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.764924, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.92, "volume": 180719184, "typical_volume": 135928164.3, "trend": 7.028504, "fair_value": 7.158746, "relative_strength": -12.389786, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.694589, "energy": 44.859428, "activity_lines": [ 6.167333, 6.949696, 7.237606, 7.15062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.17, "volume": 134453740, "typical_volume": 134578280.55, "trend": 7.010837, "fair_value": 7.143679, "relative_strength": -8.789874, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.309891, "energy": 49.026754, "activity_lines": [ 6.088, 6.670069, 7.14401, 7.095233 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.31, "volume": 110851872, "typical_volume": 134567007.4, "trend": 7.000837, "fair_value": 7.129004, "relative_strength": -8.950109, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.598754, "energy": 38.792079, "activity_lines": [ 6.128, 6.492861, 7.067033, 7.050018 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }