{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff008d0b-109b-47a2-9788-5a511b18fcd8", "symbol": "600780", "name": "Top Energy Company Ltd.Shanxi", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.054, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.47, "architecture_energy": 35.26, "architecture_maturity": 34.03, "architecture_confidence": 63.32, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.15, "rotation_up": 21.73, "upward_expansion": 9.18, "deceleration": 58.33, "rotation_down": 43.43, "downward_expansion": 68.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.950337, 5.958717, 6.31063, 6.431108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.99, "trend_reference": 6.46461, "distance_from_trend": -0.073417, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.536198, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.083565, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.093673, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030744, "excess_performance": 0.012459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073417, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009937, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.083565, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116595, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070338, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030744, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.607093, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57059837, "relative_activity": 0.428067, "balance": 3.607093, "dry_up": 0.490195, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093589, "annualized_volatility": 0.519919, "from_high_reference": -0.291124, "from_low_reference": 0.086642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.46461, "fair_value_reference": 6.536198, "structural_low": 5.512393, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.040956, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.022846, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.171745, "worst_return": -0.090113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039034, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.017901, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.138794, "worst_return": -0.067584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.109627, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.080318, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155722, "worst_return": -0.205916, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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-10.858733, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.669331, "energy": 64.489145, "activity_lines": [ 5.866111, 6.306671, 6.574607, 6.558856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.813246, "volume": 52482464, "typical_volume": 143299687.2, "trend": 6.43861, "fair_value": 6.604633, "relative_strength": -2.155155, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.196579, "energy": 64.317593, "activity_lines": [ 5.798857, 6.164442, 6.490178, 6.518646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.92, "volume": 96031552, "typical_volume": 141282366.85, "trend": 6.443943, "fair_value": 6.5803, "relative_strength": -1.436609, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.630727, "energy": 57.606532, "activity_lines": [ 5.822304, 6.063019, 6.419567, 6.485187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.07, "volume": 55791394, "typical_volume": 136691051.3, "trend": 6.454277, "fair_value": 6.557609, "relative_strength": 0.758327, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.723437, "energy": 33.474818, "activity_lines": [ 5.912417, 6.009232, 6.367194, 6.461062 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.99, "volume": 57059837, "typical_volume": 133296524.15, "trend": 6.46461, "fair_value": 6.536198, "relative_strength": -3.093673, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.470425, "energy": 35.259573, "activity_lines": [ 5.950337, 5.958717, 6.31063, 6.431108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }