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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-02", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.692, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.196, "architecture_energy": 38.67, "architecture_maturity": 8.172, "architecture_confidence": 71.249, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.87, "rotation_up": 50.36, "upward_expansion": 76.07, "deceleration": 57.62, "rotation_down": 19.37, "downward_expansion": 5.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 521.413478, 516.792537, 509.624914, 500.442522 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 507.399994, "trend_reference": 484.840295, "distance_from_trend": 0.04653, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 363.480225, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.395949, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.736891, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066994, "excess_performance": -0.218867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04653, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091161, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.395949, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081365, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017369, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08385, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066994, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.728721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 565015100, "relative_activity": 1.368738, "balance": 0.728721, "dry_up": 1.005142, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058595, "annualized_volatility": 0.277726, "from_high_reference": -0.08736, "from_low_reference": 0.480331 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 484.840295, "fair_value_reference": 363.480225, "structural_low": 446.324818, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.001822, "positive_rate": 0.512195, "directional_follow_through": 0.512195, "median_excess_return": 0.006867, "regime_survival": 0.658537, "best_return": 0.15296, "worst_return": -0.206149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.04708, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00145, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.28866, "worst_return": -0.14761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.10833, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.117882, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.498974, "worst_return": -0.083248, "sufficient": true 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"up", "direction": 57.870369, "energy": 31.93946, "activity_lines": [ 512.404684, 511.940727, 501.751342, 491.562424 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 538.373592, "volume": 480549000, "typical_volume": 404544675.0, "trend": 477.805546, "fair_value": 359.523475, "relative_strength": 8.94104, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.848257, "energy": 50.288349, "activity_lines": [ 523.233447, 516.918599, 506.123676, 495.727294 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 524.717255, "volume": 236784000, "typical_volume": 405523500.0, "trend": 481.225666, "fair_value": 361.534717, "relative_strength": 4.260631, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.509954, "energy": 52.582828, "activity_lines": [ 526.621263, 518.708004, 508.849308, 498.753856 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 507.399994, "volume": 565015100, "typical_volume": 412799905.0, "trend": 484.840295, "fair_value": 363.480225, "relative_strength": -1.736891, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.196403, "energy": 38.670084, "activity_lines": [ 521.413478, 516.792537, 509.624914, 500.442522 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }