{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ff038946-7cd8-4658-98c7-6c75ccec2c4f",
    "symbol": "EWX",
    "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P EMERGING MARKETS SMALL CAP ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 70.662,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -17.308,
    "architecture_energy": 28.958,
    "architecture_maturity": 11.76,
    "architecture_confidence": 56.766,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 45.77,
        "rotation_up": 16.99,
        "upward_expansion": 18.17,
        "deceleration": 62.27,
        "rotation_down": 61.04,
        "downward_expansion": 40.84
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        69.578447,
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        71.739607,
        71.113651
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 71.46,
    "trend_reference": 70.236115,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.017425,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 59.305073,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.204956,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -6.536939,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.050882,
    "excess_performance": -0.074743,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017425,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031254,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.204956,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.094954,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.065369,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.083061,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.050882,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.029361,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 116617,
      "relative_activity": 0.719269,
      "balance": 1.029361,
      "dry_up": 0.744341,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.042996,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.228137,
      "from_high_reference": -0.067163,
      "from_low_reference": 0.140854
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 70.236115,
      "fair_value_reference": 59.305073,
      "structural_low": 64.38,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.014703,
        "positive_rate": 0.142857,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.142857,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003041,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.022722,
        "worst_return": -0.084461,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.005549,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.030251,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.007421,
        "worst_return": -0.073068,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.013395,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.053762,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.135817,
        "worst_return": -0.082215,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.039879,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.013627,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.212458,
        "worst_return": -0.132701,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-09-22",
        "end": "2023-10-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.046277,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-11-03",
        "end": "2023-11-24",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-03-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.051596,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.102178,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.039589,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.025888,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.03649,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.114745,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.047666,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.030208,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.046803,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "relative_strength": -1.692868,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 69.35,
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        "typical_volume": 171966.8,
        "trend": 69.983719,
        "fair_value": 58.945474,
        "relative_strength": -6.078395,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 17.361589,
        "energy": 13.223357,
        "activity_lines": [
          72.228958,
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          71.316686
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 68.265,
        "volume": 87000,
        "typical_volume": 167912.65,
        "trend": 70.060552,
        "fair_value": 59.054817,
        "relative_strength": -6.877832,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -6.955954,
        "energy": 16.951341,
        "activity_lines": [
          70.651127,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 67.2636,
        "volume": 131612,
        "typical_volume": 163123.0,
        "trend": 70.091372,
        "fair_value": 59.163577,
        "relative_strength": -9.063048,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -32.836202,
        "energy": 36.489832,
        "activity_lines": [
          69.227507,
          70.95665,
          71.712785,
          71.025352
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 71.46,
        "volume": 116617,
        "typical_volume": 162132.6,
        "trend": 70.236115,
        "fair_value": 59.305073,
        "relative_strength": -6.536939,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -17.308008,
        "energy": 28.95802,
        "activity_lines": [
          69.578447,
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          71.113651
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}