{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff03b666-2bec-44cb-9d3b-36f03dccce21", "symbol": "CASH", "name": "Meta Financial Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.332, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.21, "architecture_energy": 8.658, "architecture_maturity": 18.623, "architecture_confidence": 70.795, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.35, "rotation_up": 31.28, "upward_expansion": 36.0, "deceleration": 34.93, "rotation_down": 27.02, "downward_expansion": 42.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.644, 87.384215, 86.439551, 87.201236 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 86.85, "trend_reference": 87.791558, "distance_from_trend": -0.010725, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.450067, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.250539, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.067407, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.072228, "excess_performance": -0.259682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056418, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.250539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048482, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03331, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072228, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.886791, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 654880, "relative_activity": 0.641168, "balance": 0.886791, "dry_up": 1.03032, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064661, "annualized_volatility": 0.296509, "from_high_reference": -0.14179, "from_low_reference": 0.320913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.791558, "fair_value_reference": 69.450067, "structural_low": 76.01, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.01961, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.000314, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.256296, "worst_return": -0.108467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.055652, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.039057, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.252958, "worst_return": -0.090361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.115249, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.05485, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.178385, "worst_return": 0.0592, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009968, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04689, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093327, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033318, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129362, "active": false }, { 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1069509.05, "trend": 86.40008, "fair_value": 68.756673, "relative_strength": -0.595708, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.101152, "energy": 29.719766, "activity_lines": [ 88.816667, 86.434015, 86.526182, 87.175108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 85.9, "volume": 1565303, "typical_volume": 1098225.7, "trend": 86.81825, "fair_value": 68.968811, "relative_strength": -3.094275, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.238672, "energy": 20.288834, "activity_lines": [ 88.255333, 86.658301, 86.375898, 87.142845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 88.24, "volume": 926498, "typical_volume": 1084981.05, "trend": 87.366692, "fair_value": 69.207828, "relative_strength": -0.8965, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.387233, "energy": 15.767437, "activity_lines": [ 88.217333, 87.198075, 86.467069, 87.234571 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.85, "volume": 654880, "typical_volume": 1021386.75, "trend": 87.791558, "fair_value": 69.450067, "relative_strength": -7.067407, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.210019, "energy": 8.658162, "activity_lines": [ 87.644, 87.384215, 86.439551, 87.201236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }