{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff0a0082-3229-43a7-9838-445751f814b8", "symbol": "STV", "name": "Swift TV Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.156, "architecture_energy": 78.198, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.49, "rotation_up": 16.12, "upward_expansion": 18.75, "deceleration": 37.41, "rotation_down": 69.51, "downward_expansion": 94.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006233, 0.006582, 0.007614, 0.008258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.008883, "distance_from_trend": -0.324578, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.012525, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.520969, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.489788, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.463706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.324578, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102694, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.520969, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.426873, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.414898, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.610387, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.086818, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 154342, "relative_activity": 0.019116, "balance": 0.086818, "dry_up": 0.461145, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192308, "annualized_volatility": 0.851416, "from_high_reference": -0.8, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.008883, "fair_value_reference": 0.012525, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.40625, "median_excess_return": -0.018725, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.777778, "worst_return": -0.235294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.02381, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.000283, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.875, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.162845, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.694197, "worst_return": -0.3704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.162338, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.135464, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.583333, "worst_return": -0.266667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.347826, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.363636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.016, "volume": 2360490, "typical_volume": 805705.2, "trend": 0.013933, "fair_value": 0.022054, "relative_strength": 13.388221, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.416406, "energy": 62.100542, "activity_lines": [ 0.007, 0.007536, 0.008417, 0.008855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.006, "volume": 3999482, "typical_volume": 8328418.65, "trend": 0.009083, "fair_value": 0.012653, "relative_strength": -38.883144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.95067, "energy": 56.792272, "activity_lines": [ 0.0067, 0.007164, 0.008129, 0.008649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 8205165, "typical_volume": 8669719.7, "trend": 0.008983, "fair_value": 0.012589, "relative_strength": -39.892628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.981283, "energy": 47.41087, "activity_lines": [ 0.006467, 0.006845, 0.00786, 0.008451 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 154342, "typical_volume": 8074076.4, "trend": 0.008883, "fair_value": 0.012525, "relative_strength": -41.489788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.155872, "energy": 78.197699, "activity_lines": [ 0.006233, 0.006582, 0.007614, 0.008258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }