{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff0e0044-47c8-4cf5-baff-cd3933704e2d", "symbol": "8120", "name": "Gulf Union Alahlia Cooperative Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.281, "architecture_energy": 66.507, "architecture_maturity": 78.777, "architecture_confidence": 86.342, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 59.08, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.59, "rotation_down": 25.78, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.164667, 14.001091, 13.177857, 12.487828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.5, "trend_reference": 11.709333, "distance_from_trend": 0.238328, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.687692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012779, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.513942, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.340111, "excess_performance": 0.37194, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.238328, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082193, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012779, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.217997, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.245139, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.326955, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.340111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.199312, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 394485, "relative_activity": 0.447934, "balance": 3.199312, "dry_up": 0.485182, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052149, "annualized_volatility": 0.306591, "from_high_reference": -0.026846, "from_low_reference": 0.611111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.709333, "fair_value_reference": 14.687692, "structural_low": 9.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.000249, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012847, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.290541, "worst_return": -0.167549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001356, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.052507, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.176113, "worst_return": -0.164319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004701, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038371, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.215094, "worst_return": -0.230047, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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[ 14.170667, 13.544182, 12.582667, 11.98471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.11, "volume": 421743, "typical_volume": 886387.3, "trend": 11.473333, "fair_value": 14.65391, "relative_strength": 21.908726, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.262376, "energy": 87.087786, "activity_lines": [ 14.226, 13.748182, 12.806762, 12.162366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.59, "volume": 373896, "typical_volume": 878957.4, "trend": 11.572, "fair_value": 14.669231, "relative_strength": 19.782938, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.623935, "energy": 64.881848, "activity_lines": [ 14.054, 13.808364, 12.958714, 12.298925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.5, "volume": 394485, "typical_volume": 880677.45, "trend": 11.709333, "fair_value": 14.687692, "relative_strength": 24.513942, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.28099, "energy": 66.507168, "activity_lines": [ 14.164667, 14.001091, 13.177857, 12.487828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }