{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff0e4926-8e17-48f7-abb1-75c072c7119a", "symbol": "TRAF", "name": "Trafalgar Property Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.197, "architecture_energy": 27.506, "architecture_maturity": 21.567, "architecture_confidence": 65.236, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.21, "rotation_up": 28.52, "upward_expansion": 14.56, "deceleration": 46.91, "rotation_down": 32.43, "downward_expansion": 42.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.225, 0.225182, 0.233238, 0.235656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.225, "trend_reference": 0.2355, "distance_from_trend": -0.044586, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.410224, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.45152, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.468794, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.1, "excess_performance": -0.151235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044586, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120539, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.45152, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042578, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044688, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04575, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.235556, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37358, "relative_activity": 1.459191, "balance": 0.235556, "dry_up": 0.36511, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088205, "annualized_volatility": 0.433004, "from_high_reference": -0.625, "from_low_reference": 1.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2355, "fair_value_reference": 0.410224, "structural_low": 0.18, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.090909, "directional_follow_through": 0.090909, "median_excess_return": -0.038467, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.217391, "worst_return": -0.415842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.362931, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.344515, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.12, "worst_return": -0.485714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.551724, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.5335, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.1, "worst_return": -0.60396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -7.931945, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.900731, "energy": 10.606644, "activity_lines": [ 0.225667, 0.232364, 0.240381, 0.236624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.225, "volume": 10052, "typical_volume": 25643.0, "trend": 0.2255, "fair_value": 0.434583, "relative_strength": -4.923271, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.887802, "energy": 13.933271, "activity_lines": [ 0.225, 0.229455, 0.238905, 0.236753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.225, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 25474.85, "trend": 0.228, "fair_value": 0.428974, "relative_strength": -4.863018, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.801138, "energy": 24.302315, "activity_lines": [ 0.225, 0.227545, 0.237452, 0.23672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.225, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 24364.7, "trend": 0.2305, "fair_value": 0.422724, "relative_strength": -5.089876, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.530822, "energy": 29.216397, "activity_lines": [ 0.225, 0.226091, 0.236024, 0.236527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.225, "volume": 29, "typical_volume": 24322.9, "trend": 0.233, "fair_value": 0.416474, "relative_strength": -5.219959, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.342987, "energy": 26.26593, "activity_lines": [ 0.225, 0.225545, 0.234619, 0.236172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.225, "volume": 37358, "typical_volume": 25601.85, "trend": 0.2355, "fair_value": 0.410224, "relative_strength": -4.468794, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.196897, "energy": 27.505702, "activity_lines": [ 0.225, 0.225182, 0.233238, 0.235656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }