{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff0ec8c9-b3e5-465b-9402-dd157ffab818", "symbol": "ELN", "name": "EL.En. S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.607, "architecture_energy": 24.1, "architecture_maturity": 66.382, "architecture_confidence": 91.776, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.97, "rotation_up": 23.99, "upward_expansion": 57.31, "deceleration": 91.12, "rotation_down": 28.48, "downward_expansion": 20.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.947334, 16.284728, 15.735361, 15.073842 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.120001, "trend_reference": 14.427924, "distance_from_trend": 0.117278, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.958464, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.471009, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.03025, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.151093, "excess_performance": -0.019799, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117278, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094826, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.471009, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.19912, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040303, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069845, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.151093, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.671261, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 214234, "relative_activity": 0.855277, "balance": 4.671261, "dry_up": 0.956868, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068515, "annualized_volatility": 0.334956, "from_high_reference": -0.084611, "from_low_reference": 0.585258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.427924, "fair_value_reference": 10.958464, "structural_low": 10.935772, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.047278, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.022839, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.191257, "worst_return": -0.157019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033362, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01424, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.318935, "worst_return": -0.318428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.067261, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.073875, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207753, "worst_return": -0.142189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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91.366547, "activity_lines": [ 17.06, 16.288517, 14.966862, 14.491228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.34, "volume": 321271, "typical_volume": 269194.05, "trend": 14.139966, "fair_value": 10.803576, "relative_strength": 8.159079, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.095362, "energy": 80.033316, "activity_lines": [ 16.922, 16.442698, 15.173221, 14.640642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.360001, "volume": 191228, "typical_volume": 263403.95, "trend": 14.240132, "fair_value": 10.843886, "relative_strength": 9.603422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.343093, "energy": 59.848423, "activity_lines": [ 16.74, 16.537481, 15.372141, 14.78387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.61, "volume": 197691, "typical_volume": 259959.4, "trend": 14.305136, "fair_value": 10.878119, "relative_strength": 4.711733, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.393227, "energy": 42.80001, "activity_lines": [ 16.314667, 16.440727, 15.488226, 14.872249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.68, "volume": 355571, "typical_volume": 262724.2, "trend": 14.370178, "fair_value": 10.91667, "relative_strength": 4.312077, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.185945, "energy": 26.629854, "activity_lines": [ 16.005334, 16.330364, 15.598461, 14.96095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.120001, "volume": 214234, "typical_volume": 250484.95, "trend": 14.427924, "fair_value": 10.958464, "relative_strength": 4.03025, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.606753, "energy": 24.099963, "activity_lines": [ 15.947334, 16.284728, 15.735361, 15.073842 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }