{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff15e92c-ad4b-4a7d-8325-1ba2ea747280", "symbol": "ADJ", "name": "Adler Group S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.581, "architecture_energy": 68.249, "architecture_maturity": 80.67, "architecture_confidence": 86.263, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.93, "rotation_up": 20.62, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.74, "rotation_down": 68.29, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.137867, 0.140891, 0.149445, 0.156584 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.135, "trend_reference": 0.167, "distance_from_trend": -0.191617, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.255696, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.47203, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.146003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.24581, "excess_performance": -0.420057, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.191617, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108937, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.47203, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034993, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.41146, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073258, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.24581, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 4.998505, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058974, "annualized_volatility": 0.272329, "from_high_reference": -0.43038, "from_low_reference": 0.062992 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.167, "fair_value_reference": 0.255696, "structural_low": 0.127, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 54, "median_return": -0.066939, "positive_rate": 0.240741, "directional_follow_through": 0.759259, "median_excess_return": -0.084117, "regime_survival": 0.907407, "best_return": 0.714704, "worst_return": -0.428255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.109589, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.171743, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 1.298289, "worst_return": -0.657663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.518601, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.396767, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 1.160963, "worst_return": -0.708318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-82.55226, "energy": 92.530157, "activity_lines": [ 0.147567, 0.153827, 0.16076, 0.167796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.141, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2451.5, "trend": 0.175367, "fair_value": 0.268908, "relative_strength": -40.263195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.139237, "energy": 91.849904, "activity_lines": [ 0.144567, 0.150736, 0.158186, 0.165452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1405, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2451.5, "trend": 0.17355, "fair_value": 0.265308, "relative_strength": -38.483528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.343317, "energy": 89.42891, "activity_lines": [ 0.142467, 0.147973, 0.155864, 0.163202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.137, "volume": 33445, "typical_volume": 4123.75, "trend": 0.1718, "fair_value": 0.261763, "relative_strength": -40.118396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.285406, "energy": 79.521678, "activity_lines": [ 0.140133, 0.144991, 0.153471, 0.160844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.14, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4123.75, "trend": 0.169233, "fair_value": 0.258712, "relative_strength": -37.954899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.517437, "energy": 69.689537, "activity_lines": [ 0.139633, 0.143136, 0.151595, 0.158792 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.135, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1672.75, "trend": 0.167, "fair_value": 0.255696, "relative_strength": -41.146003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.581394, "energy": 68.248732, "activity_lines": [ 0.137867, 0.140891, 0.149445, 0.156584 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }