{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ff1b242c-7a2d-44d5-b86d-ac94aff73186",
    "symbol": "EDIV",
    "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P EMERGING MARKETS DIVIDEND ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 69.83,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 58.759,
    "architecture_energy": 46.804,
    "architecture_maturity": 9.934,
    "architecture_confidence": 75.46,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 21.44,
        "rotation_up": 56.65,
        "upward_expansion": 81.46,
        "deceleration": 50.35,
        "rotation_down": 17.13,
        "downward_expansion": 8.13
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        40.996681
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 41.85,
    "trend_reference": 40.861957,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.02418,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 34.719208,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205385,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -6.151532,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.00648,
    "excess_performance": -0.119145,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02418,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.023193,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.205385,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.034343,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.061515,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.014378,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00648,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.795386,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 575588,
      "relative_activity": 0.873526,
      "balance": 0.795386,
      "dry_up": 0.858796,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.023799,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.158671,
      "from_high_reference": -0.030086,
      "from_low_reference": 0.132853
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 40.861957,
      "fair_value_reference": 34.719208,
      "structural_low": 38.4501,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 38,
        "median_return": 0.020594,
        "positive_rate": 0.605263,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.605263,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001216,
        "regime_survival": 0.815789,
        "best_return": 0.072232,
        "worst_return": -0.110196,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
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        "positive_rate": 0.692308,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.023615,
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        "worst_return": -0.047672,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
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        "worst_return": -0.148226,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.160672,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "relative_strength": -4.768529,
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      },
      {
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        "trend": 40.497357,
        "fair_value": 34.342227,
        "relative_strength": -4.207162,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 752183.55,
        "trend": 40.612313,
        "fair_value": 34.439383,
        "relative_strength": -2.280574,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.809888,
        "energy": 54.295342,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.596342,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 41.54,
        "volume": 414853,
        "typical_volume": 687362.1,
        "trend": 40.6943,
        "fair_value": 34.524488,
        "relative_strength": -2.830849,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.068169,
        "energy": 56.104428,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 41.4,
        "volume": 581214,
        "typical_volume": 674760.55,
        "trend": 40.778235,
        "fair_value": 34.619418,
        "relative_strength": -4.063406,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.751804,
        "energy": 51.460385,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.63,
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          41.09778,
          40.927535
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 41.85,
        "volume": 575588,
        "typical_volume": 658925.05,
        "trend": 40.861957,
        "fair_value": 34.719208,
        "relative_strength": -6.151532,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.758784,
        "energy": 46.804397,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}