{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff2597b9-7d24-406d-9759-eb32f3673300", "symbol": "601118", "name": "China Hainan Rubber Industry Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.244, "architecture_energy": 49.505, "architecture_maturity": 44.72, "architecture_confidence": 86.411, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.47, "rotation_up": 24.98, "upward_expansion": 7.87, "deceleration": 59.31, "rotation_down": 52.34, "downward_expansion": 81.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.031333, 5.052364, 5.599, 5.964194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.48, "trend_reference": 6.324, "distance_from_trend": -0.13346, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.222916, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049222, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.779839, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.253406, "excess_performance": -0.210202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13346, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031893, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049222, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.429095, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283951, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.253406, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.190917, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 400315228, "relative_activity": 1.803704, "balance": 1.190917, "dry_up": 1.347343, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117911, "annualized_volatility": 0.563697, "from_high_reference": -0.357562, "from_low_reference": 0.196507 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.324, "fair_value_reference": 5.222916, "structural_low": 4.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.008917, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.001751, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.112385, "worst_return": -0.123552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.006928, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.013847, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.152259, "worst_return": -0.110038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046559, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.033985, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.080831, "worst_return": -0.092095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 4.856667, 5.306182, 5.934857, 6.221634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.67, "volume": 302941777, "typical_volume": 244158115.65, "trend": 6.372667, "fair_value": 5.214752, "relative_strength": -18.961195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.013798, "energy": 83.749539, "activity_lines": [ 4.748667, 5.116182, 5.774286, 6.109935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.97, "volume": 226303879, "typical_volume": 222717622.95, "trend": 6.336333, "fair_value": 5.216817, "relative_strength": -13.997481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.574124, "energy": 65.608268, "activity_lines": [ 4.812, 5.026727, 5.655429, 6.019441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.48, "volume": 400315228, "typical_volume": 221940651.4, "trend": 6.324, "fair_value": 5.222916, "relative_strength": -7.779839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.244139, "energy": 49.504601, "activity_lines": [ 5.031333, 5.052364, 5.599, 5.964194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }