{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff2a3596-a286-45b7-8446-0f6b718ebb5d", "symbol": "JSCP", "name": "JP MORGAN ETF TRUST SHORT DURATION CORE PLUS ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.012, "architecture_energy": 24.427, "architecture_maturity": 26.088, "architecture_confidence": 88.575, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.19, "rotation_up": 19.05, "upward_expansion": 6.24, "deceleration": 42.03, "rotation_down": 46.45, "downward_expansion": 77.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.77358, 46.791857, 46.801613, 46.816046 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 46.885, "trend_reference": 46.83364, "distance_from_trend": 0.001097, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.059099, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064139, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.443805, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000583, "excess_performance": -0.126208, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001097, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001992, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064139, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013181, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004791, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000583, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.874217, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1668620, "relative_activity": 1.465456, "balance": 1.874217, "dry_up": 1.532946, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004172, "annualized_volatility": 0.021853, "from_high_reference": -0.006115, "from_low_reference": 0.027964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.83364, "fair_value_reference": 44.059099, "structural_low": 46.51156, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005202, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.010667, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.016827, "worst_return": -0.002814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.023898, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.0159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.039132, "worst_return": 0.008665, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.033827, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.125208, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04798, "worst_return": 0.019674, "sufficient": 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"relative_strength": -9.660867, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.665294, "energy": 6.859013, "activity_lines": [ 46.829225, 46.813309, 46.819774, 46.832215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.795081, "volume": 1734265, "typical_volume": 1011244.9, "trend": 46.828324, "fair_value": 43.93093, "relative_strength": -7.857055, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.85047, "energy": 5.310348, "activity_lines": [ 46.810892, 46.813047, 46.816102, 46.830441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.64564, "volume": 1371434, "typical_volume": 1027976.0, "trend": 46.827291, "fair_value": 43.972796, "relative_strength": -7.377442, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.960458, "energy": 35.912561, "activity_lines": [ 46.747217, 46.786712, 46.799906, 46.818655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.730323, "volume": 2207548, "typical_volume": 1096979.75, "trend": 46.82846, "fair_value": 44.015283, "relative_strength": -7.912147, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.357364, "energy": 40.776915, "activity_lines": [ 46.726006, 46.775799, 46.793303, 46.812399 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.885, "volume": 1668620, "typical_volume": 1138635.45, "trend": 46.83364, "fair_value": 44.059099, "relative_strength": -10.443805, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.011777, "energy": 24.426947, "activity_lines": [ 46.77358, 46.791857, 46.801613, 46.816046 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }