{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff2e4917-4f97-46d5-99fc-aa80158244cd", "symbol": "SXLI", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Industrials Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.655, "architecture_energy": 50.957, "architecture_maturity": 70.432, "architecture_confidence": 73.178, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.8, "rotation_up": 53.12, "upward_expansion": 80.43, "deceleration": 68.27, "rotation_down": 25.91, "downward_expansion": 7.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.326335, 79.142364, 77.784809, 76.661698 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 80.550003, "trend_reference": 75.377832, "distance_from_trend": 0.068617, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 59.676258, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349783, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.023032, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.079252, "excess_performance": 0.028017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068617, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349783, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023763, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04023, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007345, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079252, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.637293, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107201, "relative_activity": 1.072283, "balance": 1.637293, "dry_up": 1.37351, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02542, "annualized_volatility": 0.137215, "from_high_reference": -0.015642, "from_low_reference": 0.260563 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.377832, "fair_value_reference": 59.676258, "structural_low": 68.279999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.007889, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.006857, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.066367, "worst_return": -0.066581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023013, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.014377, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.11541, "worst_return": -0.055993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.075943, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.004231, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.166532, "worst_return": -0.045015, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.798559, "energy": 70.636868, "activity_lines": [ 79.374334, 78.701091, 77.123666, 76.101472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.860001, "volume": 168506, "typical_volume": 97771.35, "trend": 75.025832, "fair_value": 59.452812, "relative_strength": 0.920369, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.034745, "energy": 46.43726, "activity_lines": [ 78.853001, 78.706455, 77.34169, 76.3053 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.550003, "volume": 107201, "typical_volume": 99974.55, "trend": 75.377832, "fair_value": 59.676258, "relative_strength": 4.023032, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.655065, "energy": 50.957044, "activity_lines": [ 79.326335, 79.142364, 77.784809, 76.661698 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }