{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff3ddcfd-f585-4191-bb17-8ea96ae2b8ba", "symbol": "2338", "name": "Taiwan Mask Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.584, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.374, "architecture_energy": 58.878, "architecture_maturity": 17.213, "architecture_confidence": 66.378, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.18, "rotation_up": 16.97, "upward_expansion": 21.09, "deceleration": 43.32, "rotation_down": 69.44, "downward_expansion": 62.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.230002, 42.30091, 45.881906, 46.519428 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 39.650002, "trend_reference": 46.113614, "distance_from_trend": -0.140167, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.135069, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.239475, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.901465, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.13097, "excess_performance": -0.310402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140167, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071738, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.239475, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11801, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.329015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181868, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13097, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.321806, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5464540, "relative_activity": 0.211699, "balance": 1.321806, "dry_up": 0.314488, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173732, "annualized_volatility": 0.768573, "from_high_reference": -0.354235, "from_low_reference": 0.272873 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.113614, "fair_value_reference": 52.135069, "structural_low": 33.049999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016311, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.004638, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.23407, "worst_return": -0.077094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.064061, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.01994, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.26788, "worst_return": -0.118089, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.182974, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.130674, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.029909, "worst_return": -0.312127, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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44.643334, 47.441819, 48.700477, 47.977546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.700001, "volume": 11076658, "typical_volume": 29717379.35, "trend": 45.925281, "fair_value": 52.572912, "relative_strength": -34.93943, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.894129, "energy": 51.136687, "activity_lines": [ 41.506668, 45.086364, 47.536667, 47.383872 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.900002, "volume": 7107572, "typical_volume": 27019035.15, "trend": 46.023614, "fair_value": 52.334989, "relative_strength": -32.276125, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.124484, "energy": 59.298766, "activity_lines": [ 39.823335, 43.452728, 46.645715, 46.930629 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 39.650002, "volume": 5464540, "typical_volume": 25812770.3, "trend": 46.113614, "fair_value": 52.135069, "relative_strength": -32.901465, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.37395, "energy": 58.877769, "activity_lines": [ 39.230002, 42.30091, 45.881906, 46.519428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }