{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff3e4c30-69c1-4f41-a2b6-fe8aae482872", "symbol": "1085", "name": "Hengxin Technology Ltd.", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.514, "architecture_energy": 19.607, "architecture_maturity": 32.774, "architecture_confidence": 90.024, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.75, "rotation_up": 30.36, "upward_expansion": 56.78, "deceleration": 85.61, "rotation_down": 25.05, "downward_expansion": 18.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.776667, 1.800364, 1.747571, 1.667527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.7, "trend_reference": 1.589, "distance_from_trend": 0.069855, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.403846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.210959, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.009096, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.133333, "excess_performance": 0.148624, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069855, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05675, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.210959, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170158, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040091, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00906, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.562817, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106000, "relative_activity": 0.287068, "balance": 1.562817, "dry_up": 1.098849, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137104, "annualized_volatility": 0.498418, "from_high_reference": -0.314516, "from_low_reference": 0.404959 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.589, "fair_value_reference": 1.403846, "structural_low": 1.21, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.08041, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.093005, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.116564, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.103804, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.174746, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.008523, "worst_return": -0.223301, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.107971, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.121496, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136364, "worst_return": -0.51068, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.330492, 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"2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024793, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040323, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.276596, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.309783, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.235294, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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"typical_volume": 344300.0, "trend": 1.57, "fair_value": 1.424103, "relative_strength": 17.44286, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.865235, "energy": 38.612383, "activity_lines": [ 1.833333, 1.816909, 1.67681, 1.615892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.75, "volume": 188000, "typical_volume": 337500.0, "trend": 1.575333, "fair_value": 1.419487, "relative_strength": 8.227121, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.348683, "energy": 28.430634, "activity_lines": [ 1.807333, 1.813091, 1.694238, 1.627505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.85, "volume": 1248000, "typical_volume": 393400.0, "trend": 1.585333, "fair_value": 1.412564, "relative_strength": 14.621415, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.834497, "energy": 29.504925, "activity_lines": [ 1.818, 1.824, 1.719952, 1.645226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 1.82, "volume": 81000, "typical_volume": 373450.0, "trend": 1.589, "fair_value": 1.408333, "relative_strength": 14.349985, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.861412, "energy": 26.15616, "activity_lines": [ 1.818667, 1.823818, 1.740714, 1.660366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 1.7, "volume": 106000, "typical_volume": 369250.0, "trend": 1.589, "fair_value": 1.403846, "relative_strength": 4.009096, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.514173, "energy": 19.60733, "activity_lines": [ 1.776667, 1.800364, 1.747571, 1.667527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }