{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff3f3932-503a-4f2b-b7ed-52f571e9948d", "symbol": "KTMS", "name": "KT Medical Service Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.868, "architecture_energy": 16.393, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.097, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.72, "rotation_up": 25.63, "upward_expansion": 25.92, "deceleration": 53.0, "rotation_down": 20.05, "downward_expansion": 47.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.334667, 1.319636, 1.306113, 1.381059 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.36, "trend_reference": 1.517679, "distance_from_trend": -0.103895, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.027409, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.329193, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.080024, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.277453, "excess_performance": -0.469778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103895, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130491, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.329193, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037393, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.3308, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039739, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.277453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.889496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 500900, "relative_activity": 0.398849, "balance": 0.889496, "dry_up": 0.379818, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061086, "annualized_volatility": 0.358453, "from_high_reference": -0.418288, "from_low_reference": 0.20354 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.517679, "fair_value_reference": 2.027409, "structural_low": 1.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.00175, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.013229, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.097222, "worst_return": -0.174312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007299, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.083321, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.287483, "worst_return": -0.334863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.277453, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.387595, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.154099, "worst_return": -0.310345, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.7136, "energy": 62.479889, "activity_lines": [ 1.268, 1.265107, 1.355628, 1.484631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.3, "volume": 124700, "typical_volume": 1451400.0, "trend": 1.624577, "fair_value": 2.074791, "relative_strength": -39.671543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.503781, "energy": 52.37353, "activity_lines": [ 1.287333, 1.267945, 1.336995, 1.462098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.32, "volume": 452700, "typical_volume": 1435275.0, "trend": 1.602864, "fair_value": 2.066072, "relative_strength": -38.333151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.357938, "energy": 41.194401, "activity_lines": [ 1.305333, 1.276, 1.323418, 1.442448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.33, "volume": 571300, "typical_volume": 1423035.0, "trend": 1.581815, "fair_value": 2.056297, "relative_strength": -37.791115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.924274, "energy": 35.885365, "activity_lines": [ 1.318, 1.286909, 1.314225, 1.424844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.32, "volume": 607400, "typical_volume": 1413565.0, "trend": 1.559111, "fair_value": 2.046333, "relative_strength": -37.676072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.756572, "energy": 30.878144, "activity_lines": [ 1.319333, 1.296727, 1.307464, 1.407952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.32, "volume": 228400, "typical_volume": 1368235.0, "trend": 1.537729, "fair_value": 2.036743, "relative_strength": -36.212904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.025457, "energy": 22.918653, "activity_lines": [ 1.320667, 1.305091, 1.30371, 1.392526 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.36, "volume": 500900, "typical_volume": 1255865.0, "trend": 1.517679, "fair_value": 2.027409, "relative_strength": -33.080024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.867759, "energy": 16.392997, "activity_lines": [ 1.334667, 1.319636, 1.306113, 1.381059 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }