{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff4b3dd6-c1e8-4953-9f9f-ef80f2151ff5", "symbol": "MEX", "name": "Minerals Exploration Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.764, "architecture_energy": 65.18, "architecture_maturity": 86.92, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 29.64, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 50.87, "rotation_down": 54.54, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.053733, 0.055473, 0.063743, 0.078959 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.057, "trend_reference": 0.1078, "distance_from_trend": -0.471243, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.116814, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.512045, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.421357, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.707692, "excess_performance": -0.771398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.471243, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283721, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.512045, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.233091, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.604214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196481, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.707692, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.206343, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 516025, "relative_activity": 0.912285, "balance": 0.206343, "dry_up": 0.51882, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159919, "annualized_volatility": 0.64733, "from_high_reference": -0.803448, "from_low_reference": 0.540541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1078, "fair_value_reference": 0.116814, "structural_low": 0.037, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.046537, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.077613, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.1875, "worst_return": -0.205128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.057143, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.060412, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.171053, "worst_return": -0.495652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.25, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.277712, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.789474, "worst_return": -0.27619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.078929, 0.100495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.06, "volume": 8069, "typical_volume": 658598.1, "trend": 0.124933, "fair_value": 0.118474, "relative_strength": -58.015595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.439538, "energy": 64.288121, "activity_lines": [ 0.059467, 0.061855, 0.075533, 0.096047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.052, "volume": 234251, "typical_volume": 641759.6, "trend": 0.121333, "fair_value": 0.118071, "relative_strength": -63.210478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.086871, "energy": 72.148583, "activity_lines": [ 0.0568, 0.0592, 0.071829, 0.091342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.051, "volume": 413427, "typical_volume": 644493.4, "trend": 0.117033, "fair_value": 0.117596, "relative_strength": -63.389835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.567277, "energy": 75.964242, "activity_lines": [ 0.054467, 0.057018, 0.068543, 0.086804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.051, "volume": 10159, "typical_volume": 612739.2, "trend": 0.112567, "fair_value": 0.117186, "relative_strength": -63.866248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.166239, "energy": 84.034979, "activity_lines": [ 0.052867, 0.055455, 0.065681, 0.082544 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.057, "volume": 516025, "typical_volume": 565640.4, "trend": 0.1078, "fair_value": 0.116814, "relative_strength": -60.421357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.76438, "energy": 65.180249, "activity_lines": [ 0.053733, 0.055473, 0.063743, 0.078959 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }