{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff4e27b6-6e22-43d9-ad2c-1ed096015c2f", "symbol": "ALV", "name": "Autoliv Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.056, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.83, "architecture_energy": 23.18, "architecture_maturity": 15.238, "architecture_confidence": 46.411, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.6, "rotation_up": 38.95, "upward_expansion": 66.01, "deceleration": 64.0, "rotation_down": 25.96, "downward_expansion": 11.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.348667, 120.684545, 120.457354, 118.547751 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 122.86, "trend_reference": 117.67336, "distance_from_trend": 0.044077, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 104.469317, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176039, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.336803, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.008449, "excess_performance": -0.134074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044077, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008309, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176039, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015788, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008449, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.453224, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2765634, "relative_activity": 0.756412, "balance": 1.453224, "dry_up": 1.077266, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06735, "annualized_volatility": 0.298232, "from_high_reference": -0.07044, "from_low_reference": 0.248154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 117.67336, "fair_value_reference": 104.469317, "structural_low": 98.4334, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.036569, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022793, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.099583, "worst_return": -0.159824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024586, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.004299, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.162216, "worst_return": -0.142602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.087563, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.056648, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.278527, "worst_return": 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"activity_lines": [ 122.442667, 122.167172, 118.098855, 117.600305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 116.24, "volume": 2419650, "typical_volume": 3742453.55, "trend": 117.563363, "fair_value": 103.485739, "relative_strength": -9.836833, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.917247, "energy": 6.272017, "activity_lines": [ 119.814667, 121.295304, 118.135706, 117.516127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 120.26, "volume": 2992987, "typical_volume": 3733811.8, "trend": 117.590211, "fair_value": 103.709633, "relative_strength": -7.709162, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.483676, "energy": 20.143184, "activity_lines": [ 119.252, 121.167194, 118.588125, 117.690104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 120.26, "volume": 5773906, "typical_volume": 3874477.5, "trend": 117.623626, "fair_value": 103.873456, "relative_strength": -6.119604, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.26648, "energy": 17.955687, "activity_lines": [ 119.176, 120.949244, 119.045151, 117.862348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 117.49, "volume": 4173777, "typical_volume": 3881238.8, "trend": 117.587692, "fair_value": 104.033463, "relative_strength": -7.515313, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.421509, "energy": 14.878967, "activity_lines": [ 118.728, 120.236182, 119.221632, 117.853727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.17, "volume": 3041712, "typical_volume": 3839020.9, "trend": 117.684944, "fair_value": 104.231888, "relative_strength": -3.995299, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.148993, "energy": 17.362804, "activity_lines": [ 120.223333, 120.492545, 119.904289, 118.213876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 122.86, "volume": 2765634, "typical_volume": 3656254.35, "trend": 117.67336, "fair_value": 104.469317, "relative_strength": -7.336803, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.830461, "energy": 23.180058, "activity_lines": [ 121.348667, 120.684545, 120.457354, 118.547751 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }