{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff568ab8-96e8-4d12-a909-047970d69d07", "symbol": "ESI", "name": "Ensign Energy Services Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.609, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.277, "architecture_energy": 20.109, "architecture_maturity": 25.469, "architecture_confidence": 73.055, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.53, "rotation_up": 29.37, "upward_expansion": 15.3, "deceleration": 61.46, "rotation_down": 45.31, "downward_expansion": 43.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.470667, 3.476727, 3.655667, 3.659785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.21, "trend_reference": 3.608, "distance_from_trend": -0.11031, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.712756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183298, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.695498, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027273, "excess_performance": -0.147694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11031, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098437, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183298, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301422, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076955, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.337225, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027273, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.799301, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1076400, "relative_activity": 0.835089, "balance": 1.799301, "dry_up": 0.905843, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130362, "annualized_volatility": 0.558471, "from_high_reference": -0.354125, "from_low_reference": 0.589109 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.608, "fair_value_reference": 2.712756, "structural_low": 3.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010889, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007469, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.221198, "worst_return": -0.183844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02521, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.011373, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.032258, "worst_return": -0.420613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.24424, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.152547, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.630631, "worst_return": -0.195652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.151999, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.081289, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.78341, "worst_return": -0.29805, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.265683, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084592, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.184783, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.208122, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103604, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.212687, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031332, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04321, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.158358, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080229, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.0, "volume": 2288600, "typical_volume": 1741630.0, "trend": 2.744, "fair_value": 2.293974, "relative_strength": 2.279153, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.014389, "energy": 66.344736, 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"activity_lines": [ 3.39, 3.651455, 3.734048, 3.665312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.41, "volume": 896300, "typical_volume": 1345905.0, "trend": 3.513333, "fair_value": 2.69609, "relative_strength": 2.445354, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.096655, "energy": 38.751159, "activity_lines": [ 3.366, 3.573636, 3.704905, 3.660882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.95, "volume": 1479400, "typical_volume": 1311200.0, "trend": 3.563333, "fair_value": 2.705705, "relative_strength": 17.600347, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.662215, "energy": 11.446698, "activity_lines": [ 3.555333, 3.601818, 3.72819, 3.689054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.49, "volume": 1218300, "typical_volume": 1318085.0, "trend": 3.590333, "fair_value": 2.710833, "relative_strength": 3.94751, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.003779, "energy": 7.092911, "activity_lines": [ 3.568, 3.555455, 3.705238, 3.684323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.21, "volume": 1076400, "typical_volume": 1288965.0, "trend": 3.608, "fair_value": 2.712756, "relative_strength": -7.695498, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.277491, "energy": 20.108811, "activity_lines": [ 3.470667, 3.476727, 3.655667, 3.659785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }