{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff586607-1b71-4d22-94f2-06abbf639538", "symbol": "LECO", "name": "Lincoln Electric Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.188, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.316, "architecture_energy": 13.541, "architecture_maturity": 19.487, "architecture_confidence": 67.441, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.11, "rotation_up": 42.19, "upward_expansion": 31.46, "deceleration": 34.82, "rotation_down": 31.94, "downward_expansion": 27.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 264.392667, 262.052774, 261.561502, 261.882562 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 281.96, "trend_reference": 263.861731, "distance_from_trend": 0.06859, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 217.054548, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.299028, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.390904, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.053619, "excess_performance": -0.241073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06859, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030355, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.299028, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015349, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03729, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.042254, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1640424, "relative_activity": 0.911549, "balance": 1.042254, "dry_up": 1.09802, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057246, "annualized_volatility": 0.248517, "from_high_reference": -0.087567, "from_low_reference": 0.312491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 263.861731, "fair_value_reference": 217.054548, "structural_low": 235.43, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.011093, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.020305, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.138442, "worst_return": -0.093172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.003791, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.073198, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.28444, "worst_return": -0.073209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.120777, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004928, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.169789, "worst_return": -0.119666, 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.525291, "energy": 8.70776, "activity_lines": [ 259.479239, 260.794898, 260.434331, 261.965356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 252.735, "volume": 1254695, "typical_volume": 1694694.45, "trend": 262.017563, "fair_value": 215.537332, "relative_strength": -9.499493, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.692911, "energy": 35.662504, "activity_lines": [ 256.586464, 259.124128, 259.707924, 261.389819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 251.47, "volume": 1536609, "typical_volume": 1696327.65, "trend": 262.237115, "fair_value": 215.92055, "relative_strength": -8.350534, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.195331, "energy": 43.425643, "activity_lines": [ 253.588615, 257.542826, 259.020124, 260.709331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 261.31, "volume": 3472266, "typical_volume": 1815553.5, "trend": 262.847804, "fair_value": 216.4151, "relative_strength": -5.043597, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.480752, "energy": 35.595686, "activity_lines": [ 255.400333, 257.908359, 259.316235, 260.649517 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 281.96, "volume": 1640424, "typical_volume": 1799600.8, "trend": 263.861731, "fair_value": 217.054548, "relative_strength": -2.390904, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.315777, "energy": 13.541075, "activity_lines": [ 264.392667, 262.052774, 261.561502, 261.882562 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }