{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff5aa624-19e8-40dd-bd83-23fab0a4a629", "symbol": "CLEM", "name": "Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets ESG Broad Transition - UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.927, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.51, "architecture_energy": 24.488, "architecture_maturity": 65.259, "architecture_confidence": 89.704, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.02, "rotation_up": 18.27, "upward_expansion": 52.47, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 35.67, "downward_expansion": 18.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.596001, 74.80351, 74.517724, 72.759426 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 74.230003, "trend_reference": 70.477801, "distance_from_trend": 0.053239, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.132141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.371274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.694926, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.128767, "excess_performance": 0.075456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053239, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0753, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.371274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073702, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056949, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170786, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128767, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.103632, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16389, "relative_activity": 0.946537, "balance": 1.103632, "dry_up": 0.93217, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04329, "annualized_volatility": 0.231227, "from_high_reference": -0.074439, "from_low_reference": 0.353327 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.477801, "fair_value_reference": 54.132141, "structural_low": 60.463001, "invalidation": "A 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"positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008005, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018772, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10896, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049194, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084665, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032185, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008101, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129231, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024651, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009795, "active": true } ], 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"trend": 70.1266, "fair_value": 53.937244, "relative_strength": 6.541665, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.642872, "energy": 24.242978, "activity_lines": [ 73.684, 75.078255, 74.334548, 72.494691 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.230003, "volume": 16389, "typical_volume": 17314.7, "trend": 70.477801, "fair_value": 54.132141, "relative_strength": 5.694926, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.509502, "energy": 24.487744, "activity_lines": [ 73.596001, 74.80351, 74.517724, 72.759426 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }