{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff5fd5b4-0829-4323-9ae6-1b8fa4a40ded", "symbol": "CARG", "name": "CarGurus", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.79, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.025, "architecture_energy": 59.095, "architecture_maturity": 17.212, "architecture_confidence": 66.556, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.58, "rotation_up": 73.17, "upward_expansion": 85.58, "deceleration": 46.0, "rotation_down": 9.78, "downward_expansion": 9.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.278333, 34.876182, 33.437976, 33.168226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 38.985, "trend_reference": 32.756333, "distance_from_trend": 0.190152, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.609808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316625, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.578549, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.362635, "excess_performance": 0.175182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.190152, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034558, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.316625, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10438, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005785, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148884, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.362635, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.150211, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6010956, "relative_activity": 0.982089, "balance": 1.150211, "dry_up": 0.882889, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096755, "annualized_volatility": 0.530327, "from_high_reference": -0.054219, "from_low_reference": 0.477264 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.756333, "fair_value_reference": 29.609808, "structural_low": 26.39, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.01151, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.015948, "regime_survival": 0.689655, "best_return": 0.242177, "worst_return": -0.340334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.024333, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.032738, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.40874, "worst_return": -0.389501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.013423, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.134526, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.436823, "worst_return": -0.542665, 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"typical_volume": 6624643.7, "trend": 33.094833, "fair_value": 29.21125, "relative_strength": -13.78983, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.66185, "energy": 21.626013, "activity_lines": [ 33.477333, 31.612818, 32.27331, 32.395581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.0, "volume": 6423428, "typical_volume": 6443304.75, "trend": 32.974167, "fair_value": 29.289968, "relative_strength": -7.598514, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.236243, "energy": 27.45125, "activity_lines": [ 34.434667, 32.347818, 32.499952, 32.518495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.37, "volume": 4684854, "typical_volume": 6292123.5, "trend": 32.7985, "fair_value": 29.361571, "relative_strength": -10.135878, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.88861, "energy": 29.51636, "activity_lines": [ 34.326667, 32.781818, 32.550881, 32.544032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.24, "volume": 4495937, "typical_volume": 6270182.55, "trend": 32.7515, "fair_value": 29.477917, "relative_strength": -2.766162, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.053102, "energy": 49.444158, "activity_lines": [ 34.952, 33.652182, 32.876524, 32.766065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.985, "volume": 6010956, "typical_volume": 6120583.7, "trend": 32.756333, "fair_value": 29.609808, "relative_strength": -0.578549, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.025201, "energy": 59.094632, "activity_lines": [ 36.278333, 34.876182, 33.437976, 33.168226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }