{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff645af2-8696-49d0-af05-6e8873667df1", "symbol": "VGK", "name": "VANGUARD INTL EQUITY INDEX FUND INC FTSE EUROPE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.747, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.851, "architecture_energy": 75.803, "architecture_maturity": 35.841, "architecture_confidence": 75.591, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.39, "rotation_up": 72.5, "upward_expansion": 91.58, "deceleration": 42.88, "rotation_down": 14.72, "downward_expansion": 15.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 90.422667, 89.509455, 88.325494, 87.247875 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 92.6, "trend_reference": 86.2986, "distance_from_trend": 0.073019, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.814493, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326372, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.607857, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065777, "excess_performance": -0.059848, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073019, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033458, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326372, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03119, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006079, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022368, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065777, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.050732, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11487172, "relative_activity": 0.769497, "balance": 1.050732, "dry_up": 0.710626, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024674, "annualized_volatility": 0.182295, "from_high_reference": -0.002693, "from_low_reference": 0.239591 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 86.2986, "fair_value_reference": 69.814493, "structural_low": 77.640299, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.005208, "positive_rate": 0.542857, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.004927, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.094517, "worst_return": -0.073732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.03531, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.031246, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.103416, "worst_return": -0.127356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018332, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.05324, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.137019, "worst_return": -0.058768, "sufficient": true }, { 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69.358752, "relative_strength": -0.652405, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.554967, "energy": 46.714215, "activity_lines": [ 88.53, 88.254923, 87.271637, 86.512135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.59, "volume": 11849133, "typical_volume": 15757418.0, "trend": 86.019077, "fair_value": 69.580501, "relative_strength": 0.652845, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.715536, "energy": 55.87054, "activity_lines": [ 89.256667, 88.729603, 87.726471, 86.823299 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 92.6, "volume": 11487172, "typical_volume": 14928154.55, "trend": 86.2986, "fair_value": 69.814493, "relative_strength": -0.607857, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.851129, "energy": 75.802676, "activity_lines": [ 90.422667, 89.509455, 88.325494, 87.247875 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }