{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff6ac68d-b0d9-4c33-b630-3406c90503d8", "symbol": "EMMUSC", "name": "UBS Core MSCI EM UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.15, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.48, "architecture_energy": 17.991, "architecture_maturity": 65.016, "architecture_confidence": 85.635, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.76, "rotation_up": 17.05, "upward_expansion": 45.52, "deceleration": 87.92, "rotation_down": 38.86, "downward_expansion": 28.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.1244, 18.385418, 18.409181, 18.02591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.408001, "trend_reference": 17.528133, "distance_from_trend": 0.050197, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.92299, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.424438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.225365, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.112535, "excess_performance": 0.029651, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050197, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073388, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.424438, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12047, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022254, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205192, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112535, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.928777, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 665190, "relative_activity": 0.74962, "balance": 1.928777, "dry_up": 1.662669, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045106, "annualized_volatility": 0.259378, "from_high_reference": -0.065584, "from_low_reference": 0.371889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.528133, "fair_value_reference": 12.92299, "structural_low": 15.162, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009036, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.012814, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.147581, "worst_return": -0.051017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029797, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.017254, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.224225, "worst_return": 0.008032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.060479, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.035166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.095857, "worst_return": 0.0251, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.116428, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008076, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053215, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04644, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013958, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14176, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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17.350067, "fair_value": 12.821567, "relative_strength": 1.557229, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.693357, "energy": 22.241979, "activity_lines": [ 18.25, 18.560837, 18.354105, 17.925127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.944, "volume": 1920890, "typical_volume": 938075.2, "trend": 17.4398, "fair_value": 12.870092, "relative_strength": 1.228394, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.371516, "energy": 21.251103, "activity_lines": [ 18.078667, 18.426509, 18.364333, 17.963445 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.408001, "volume": 665190, "typical_volume": 887369.6, "trend": 17.528133, "fair_value": 12.92299, "relative_strength": 2.225365, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.479655, "energy": 17.990662, "activity_lines": [ 18.1244, 18.385418, 18.409181, 18.02591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }