{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff6c55a6-5917-41bf-8241-46b76630d3db", "symbol": "AROW", "name": "Arrow Financial Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.294, "architecture_energy": 31.356, "architecture_maturity": 83.907, "architecture_confidence": 55.683, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.3, "rotation_up": 38.82, "upward_expansion": 65.63, "deceleration": 65.28, "rotation_down": 25.65, "downward_expansion": 15.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.895333, 40.125636, 39.022194, 37.830682 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.4, "trend_reference": 36.323782, "distance_from_trend": 0.084689, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.059472, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.456052, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.493418, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.111524, "excess_performance": -0.075929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084689, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094121, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.456052, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003118, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.044934, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012283, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.332091, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 298675, "relative_activity": 0.693512, "balance": 1.332091, "dry_up": 0.955678, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061893, "annualized_volatility": 0.242603, "from_high_reference": -0.077283, "from_low_reference": 0.562991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.323782, "fair_value_reference": 27.059472, "structural_low": 31.119657, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.003317, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.013664, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.177802, "worst_return": -0.176036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.001342, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.112826, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.168248, "worst_return": -0.190058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.113377, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.148074, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.271113, "worst_return": -0.430671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.469568, "energy": 73.878241, "activity_lines": [ 40.998, 39.991636, 38.326234, 37.097292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.45, "volume": 489139, "typical_volume": 443784.65, "trend": 35.767961, "fair_value": 26.770215, "relative_strength": 11.399223, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.70862, "energy": 50.694284, "activity_lines": [ 40.594667, 40.085636, 38.579466, 37.353136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.84, "volume": 383234, "typical_volume": 437435.2, "trend": 36.070085, "fair_value": 26.913399, "relative_strength": 11.380125, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.116437, "energy": 41.960204, "activity_lines": [ 40.278, 40.173091, 38.839948, 37.615848 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.4, "volume": 298675, "typical_volume": 430670.4, "trend": 36.323782, "fair_value": 27.059472, "relative_strength": 4.493418, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.294214, "energy": 31.355911, "activity_lines": [ 39.895333, 40.125636, 39.022194, 37.830682 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }