{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff6c5fa2-33c5-407e-b14c-ae2d82e31a33", "symbol": "SPLG", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility UCITS ETF Accumulation", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.752, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.29, "architecture_energy": 44.246, "architecture_maturity": 24.495, "architecture_confidence": 51.303, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.1, "rotation_up": 56.65, "upward_expansion": 76.46, "deceleration": 67.92, "rotation_down": 17.14, "downward_expansion": 5.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 4135.883333, 4124.85, 4064.125, 4042.475269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4104.5, "trend_reference": 4012.233333, "distance_from_trend": 0.022996, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3796.062456, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.081252, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.934072, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.040629, "excess_performance": -0.010607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022996, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019301, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.081252, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046518, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049341, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023936, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040629, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.121104, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11904, "relative_activity": 2.400218, "balance": 0.121104, "dry_up": 2.343811, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022741, "annualized_volatility": 0.120624, "from_high_reference": -0.208541, "from_low_reference": 0.094387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4012.233333, "fair_value_reference": 3796.062456, "structural_low": 3830.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.000939, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.008777, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.070448, "worst_return": -0.237754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007661, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.024519, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.051664, "worst_return": -0.25805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002959, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.098794, "worst_return": -0.237128, "sufficient": false }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001879, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.237754, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036552, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023008, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.362102, "energy": 75.049313, "activity_lines": [ 4102.35, 4050.022727, 4012.271429, 4000.328495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4172.0, "volume": 1583, "typical_volume": 2817.3, "trend": 3979.658333, "fair_value": 3781.509571, "relative_strength": -1.290684, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.70896, "energy": 81.295804, "activity_lines": [ 4132.166667, 4080.013636, 4027.729762, 4013.436559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4204.75, "volume": 229, "typical_volume": 2740.15, "trend": 3992.983333, "fair_value": 3786.653802, "relative_strength": -1.603311, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.063363, "energy": 80.488684, "activity_lines": [ 4162.466667, 4110.445455, 4046.134524, 4027.958602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4117.25, "volume": 32781, "typical_volume": 4370.4, "trend": 4003.758333, "fair_value": 3791.402199, "relative_strength": -4.589873, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.925885, "energy": 48.300651, "activity_lines": [ 4150.183333, 4120.063636, 4055.810714, 4035.975806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4104.5, "volume": 11904, "typical_volume": 4959.55, "trend": 4012.233333, "fair_value": 3796.062456, "relative_strength": -4.934072, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.289797, "energy": 44.245755, "activity_lines": [ 4135.883333, 4124.85, 4064.125, 4042.475269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }