{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff73e79d-d0d4-4a29-b9b9-9b2539f8cc90", "symbol": "JRI", "name": "Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.22, "architecture_energy": 46.109, "architecture_maturity": 9.508, "architecture_confidence": 77.753, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.23, "rotation_up": 56.4, "upward_expansion": 81.56, "deceleration": 50.53, "rotation_down": 16.87, "downward_expansion": 8.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.92185, 12.85849, 12.762059, 12.652495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.81, "trend_reference": 12.572999, "distance_from_trend": 0.01885, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.669855, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200579, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.284015, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039832, "excess_performance": -0.085793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01885, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003626, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200579, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052864, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09284, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024078, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039832, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.696784, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 916887, "relative_activity": 1.323132, "balance": 1.696784, "dry_up": 0.971355, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028039, "annualized_volatility": 0.190917, "from_high_reference": -0.020642, "from_low_reference": 0.132666 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.572999, "fair_value_reference": 10.669855, "structural_low": 11.309604, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.018111, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.007011, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.104699, "worst_return": -0.07132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.041976, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.020353, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.151126, "worst_return": -0.077626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.061769, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.049573, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.136401, "worst_return": -0.004814, "sufficient": true 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12.567692, "fair_value": 10.607513, "relative_strength": -3.623901, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.775803, "energy": 65.802858, "activity_lines": [ 12.939265, 12.812686, 12.69906, 12.612066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.96, "volume": 523786, "typical_volume": 724533.95, "trend": 12.575647, "fair_value": 10.639414, "relative_strength": -5.239062, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.294403, "energy": 61.059761, "activity_lines": [ 12.965558, 12.851252, 12.739509, 12.637376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.81, "volume": 916887, "typical_volume": 692966.9, "trend": 12.572999, "fair_value": 10.669855, "relative_strength": -9.284015, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.220484, "energy": 46.108561, "activity_lines": [ 12.92185, 12.85849, 12.762059, 12.652495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }