{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff78449b-5cba-4c34-8740-3dc6e1c02d69", "symbol": "ENGI11", "name": "Energisa S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 67.796, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.771, "architecture_energy": 24.488, "architecture_maturity": 20.982, "architecture_confidence": 72.874, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.11, "rotation_up": 24.58, "upward_expansion": 15.31, "deceleration": 40.79, "rotation_down": 35.09, "downward_expansion": 58.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.750667, 48.680545, 49.153286, 49.934796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 46.880001, "trend_reference": 50.614, "distance_from_trend": -0.073774, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.718979, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123709, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.049701, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.072785, "excess_performance": -0.015736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073774, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001831, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123709, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070497, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031018, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072785, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805925, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17307400, "relative_activity": 1.613847, "balance": 0.805925, "dry_up": 1.235492, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058874, "annualized_volatility": 0.300995, "from_high_reference": -0.208776, "from_low_reference": 0.149875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.614, "fair_value_reference": 41.718979, "structural_low": 45.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.010041, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.027247, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.138219, "worst_return": -0.132029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.017828, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.043269, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.248029, "worst_return": -0.143033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021163, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.070269, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.309239, "worst_return": -0.13668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.003785, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.073691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.609185, "worst_return": -0.142011, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038419, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031366, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094325, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127633, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007929, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052877, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.110544, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052413, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024684, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059862, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 38.648941, "volume": 12820500, "typical_volume": 15960197.0, "trend": 34.976722, "fair_value": 33.017812, "relative_strength": 7.594793, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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50.28129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 52.119999, "volume": 17943600, "typical_volume": 11650420.0, "trend": 50.425666, "fair_value": 41.482105, "relative_strength": -0.407756, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.771591, "energy": 18.443658, "activity_lines": [ 49.063999, 48.354363, 49.871714, 50.396946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.25, "volume": 10908500, "typical_volume": 11530215.0, "trend": 50.491666, "fair_value": 41.541685, "relative_strength": -3.546467, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.310068, "energy": 23.174239, "activity_lines": [ 49.405333, 48.495636, 49.712524, 50.321096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.0, "volume": 9219800, "typical_volume": 11324515.0, "trend": 50.547666, "fair_value": 41.598592, "relative_strength": -4.107263, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.371371, "energy": 23.604674, "activity_lines": [ 49.54, 48.654727, 49.551428, 50.22486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.81, "volume": 15563500, "typical_volume": 11146670.0, "trend": 50.638333, "fair_value": 41.668482, "relative_strength": -4.529241, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.806986, "energy": 22.30963, "activity_lines": [ 49.707333, 48.951272, 49.486047, 50.177269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.880001, "volume": 17307400, "typical_volume": 10724310.0, "trend": 50.614, "fair_value": 41.718979, "relative_strength": -7.049701, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.771412, "energy": 24.487516, "activity_lines": [ 48.750667, 48.680545, 49.153286, 49.934796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }