{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff7aa6b8-8d6d-458e-8e6b-12199c358cdb", "symbol": "WEX", "name": "Wex Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.346, "architecture_energy": 85.998, "architecture_maturity": 19.398, "architecture_confidence": 75.519, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.66, "rotation_up": 82.55, "upward_expansion": 95.02, "deceleration": 41.85, "rotation_down": 8.03, "downward_expansion": 19.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 179.232667, 165.916, 157.139762, 155.929011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 185.22, "trend_reference": 155.323667, "distance_from_trend": 0.192478, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 172.775128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072029, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.636526, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.165272, "excess_performance": 0.039647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.192478, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014586, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072029, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.263639, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056365, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.242916, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165272, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.900093, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3389621, "relative_activity": 1.093143, "balance": 1.900093, "dry_up": 1.42533, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072932, "annualized_volatility": 0.444299, "from_high_reference": -0.037173, "from_low_reference": 0.47833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 155.323667, "fair_value_reference": 172.775128, "structural_low": 125.29, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.018746, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.009656, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.138697, "worst_return": -0.144668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.017174, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.065836, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.21055, "worst_return": -0.172406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021193, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.078673, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029776, "worst_return": -0.260832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.072874, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.124591, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.177202, "worst_return": -0.105654, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144668, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013867, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021607, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03774, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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"typical_volume": 2896746.7, "trend": 153.26, "fair_value": 172.858013, "relative_strength": 4.707134, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.88136, "energy": 42.656214, "activity_lines": [ 162.761333, 153.061455, 150.639048, 151.775828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 186.96, "volume": 5608954, "typical_volume": 3055535.95, "trend": 154.545667, "fair_value": 172.822756, "relative_strength": 10.116471, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.13055, "energy": 72.65599, "activity_lines": [ 172.918667, 159.977818, 154.036571, 153.950022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 185.22, "volume": 3389621, "typical_volume": 3100804.0, "trend": 155.323667, "fair_value": 172.775128, "relative_strength": 5.636526, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.346315, "energy": 85.998136, "activity_lines": [ 179.232667, 165.916, 157.139762, 155.929011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }