{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff7c2b93-3436-4319-bfb2-c1e030d41952", "symbol": "DXU", "name": "Dynamic Active U.S. Dividend ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.486, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.608, "architecture_energy": 32.671, "architecture_maturity": 64.732, "architecture_confidence": 82.136, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.01, "rotation_up": 21.03, "upward_expansion": 59.16, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 30.05, "downward_expansion": 25.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.174, 86.338, 85.173286, 82.471011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 84.709999, "trend_reference": 79.046, "distance_from_trend": 0.071654, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.710865, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.350803, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.347, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.163599, "excess_performance": 0.043178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071654, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.350803, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030862, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00347, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0352, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.163599, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.783333, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8800, "relative_activity": 3.314501, "balance": 0.783333, "dry_up": 1.704331, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024509, "annualized_volatility": 0.188064, "from_high_reference": -0.065527, "from_low_reference": 0.284263 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.046, "fair_value_reference": 62.710865, "structural_low": 68.709999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.020445, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.005788, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.084328, "worst_return": -0.121285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.0115, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.024267, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.178663, "worst_return": -0.192285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.104053, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.001099, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.253571, "worst_return": -0.03413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126596, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000639, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033278, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068097, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", 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84.532664, "energy": 93.483242, "activity_lines": [ 80.722, 78.098546, 75.386525, 74.173786 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 81.82, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 2125.0, "trend": 73.268001, "fair_value": 59.624647, "relative_strength": 2.765271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.669481, "energy": 89.125985, "activity_lines": [ 81.364, 79.226, 76.14581, 74.749356 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 85.370003, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 1980.0, "trend": 73.677001, "fair_value": 59.901378, "relative_strength": 6.191156, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.671802, "energy": 94.322228, "activity_lines": [ 82.906001, 80.765455, 77.185858, 75.53013 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 85.599998, "volume": 4300, "typical_volume": 2110.0, "trend": 74.156001, "fair_value": 60.182276, "relative_strength": 7.470636, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"fair_value": 61.074199, "relative_strength": 10.583656, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.014732, "energy": 92.95802, "activity_lines": [ 88.801333, 86.344182, 81.856429, 79.140388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 87.720001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1690.0, "trend": 76.522334, "fair_value": 61.361378, "relative_strength": 7.01707, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.432975, "energy": 85.493137, "activity_lines": [ 88.755333, 86.965818, 82.745096, 79.898323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 87.239998, "volume": 13800, "typical_volume": 2145.0, "trend": 77.097001, "fair_value": 61.638814, "relative_strength": 6.247034, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.977693, "energy": 79.165358, "activity_lines": [ 88.392666, 87.345091, 83.515572, 80.589785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 85.220001, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 2175.0, "trend": 77.630001, "fair_value": 61.903878, "relative_strength": 3.949292, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.861353, "energy": 63.065273, "activity_lines": [ 87.247333, 87.198182, 84.033762, 81.11385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 86.660004, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 2170.0, "trend": 78.163334, "fair_value": 62.178301, "relative_strength": 5.411474, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.036035, "energy": 51.2481, "activity_lines": [ 86.750668, 87.248546, 84.636143, 81.696431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 84.099998, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 2405.0, "trend": 78.640667, "fair_value": 62.442789, "relative_strength": 2.780805, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.170926, "energy": 38.437121, "activity_lines": [ 85.666667, 86.758546, 84.911667, 82.079441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 84.709999, "volume": 8800, "typical_volume": 2655.0, "trend": 79.046, "fair_value": 62.710865, "relative_strength": 0.347, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.607985, "energy": 32.670576, "activity_lines": [ 85.174, 86.338, 85.173286, 82.471011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }