{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ff824a0a-6a51-4a1e-aba9-1fa84e435e9b",
    "symbol": "ALAQU",
    "name": "Aquila SA",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 67.685,
    "architecture_energy": 55.084,
    "architecture_maturity": 25.863,
    "architecture_confidence": 88.403,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 11.51,
        "rotation_up": 56.61,
        "upward_expansion": 82.65,
        "deceleration": 54.7,
        "rotation_down": 22.65,
        "downward_expansion": 9.32
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3.764,
        3.736727,
        3.633167,
        3.557577
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 3.8,
    "trend_reference": 3.485882,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.090112,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 3.306467,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.149263,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.150609,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.108313,
    "excess_performance": 0.055002,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.090112,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025876,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.149263,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035172,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011506,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029808,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.108313,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.108768,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2759,
      "relative_activity": 2.194385,
      "balance": 3.108768,
      "dry_up": 0.983457,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.03685,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.317598,
      "from_high_reference": -0.028907,
      "from_low_reference": 0.221135
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3.485882,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.306467,
      "structural_low": 3.111858,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.057971,
        "positive_rate": 0.111111,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.111111,
        "median_excess_return": -0.036915,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.061111,
        "worst_return": -0.096083,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.06542,
        "sufficient": false
      },
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "sufficient": false
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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          3.27832,
          3.290743,
          3.333779,
          3.370688
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 3.260929,
        "volume": 320,
        "typical_volume": 1178.45,
        "trend": 3.423665,
        "fair_value": 3.349948,
        "relative_strength": -9.024893,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -41.502835,
        "energy": 22.80591,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.280805,
          3.280579,
          3.323929,
          3.359228
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 3.726776,
        "volume": 5237,
        "typical_volume": 1432.55,
        "trend": 3.423665,
        "fair_value": 3.345128,
        "relative_strength": 4.13144,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 32.246584,
        "energy": 26.475597,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.438572,
          3.359858,
          3.359067,
          3.378783
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 3.465902,
        "volume": 1442,
        "typical_volume": 1498.75,
        "trend": 3.418075,
        "fair_value": 3.340368,
        "relative_strength": -0.822037,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 10.821935,
        "energy": 21.265418,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.472113,
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          3.368029,
          3.381508
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 3.41,
        "volume": 1667,
        "typical_volume": 1481.4,
        "trend": 3.406894,
        "fair_value": 3.333764,
        "relative_strength": -3.911811,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 12.149647,
        "energy": 22.234938,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.465902,
          3.395432,
          3.371313,
          3.380987
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 3.44,
        "volume": 2920,
        "typical_volume": 1509.3,
        "trend": 3.397956,
        "fair_value": 3.329086,
        "relative_strength": -3.611078,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 12.967453,
        "energy": 22.476615,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.463479,
          3.411728,
          3.37692,
          3.383123
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 3.5,
        "volume": 44,
        "typical_volume": 1500.1,
        "trend": 3.402199,
        "fair_value": 3.32557,
        "relative_strength": -2.113269,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 13.68269,
        "energy": 18.018221,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.476572,
          3.43771,
          3.388366,
          3.389707
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 3.6,
        "volume": 3015,
        "typical_volume": 1322.15,
        "trend": 3.404805,
        "fair_value": 3.323007,
        "relative_strength": -0.700424,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 37.425323,
        "energy": 30.834995,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.50706,
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          3.409084,
          3.402468
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 3.72,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1310.35,
        "trend": 3.411412,
        "fair_value": 3.320902,
        "relative_strength": 1.898244,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.17577,
        "energy": 67.636198,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.586,
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          3.441302,
          3.422803
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 3.6,
        "volume": 84,
        "typical_volume": 1236.6,
        "trend": 3.412776,
        "fair_value": 3.319585,
        "relative_strength": -0.804701,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.18706,
        "energy": 64.87368,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.608,
          3.552882,
          3.460438,
          3.43497
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 3.74,
        "volume": 400,
        "typical_volume": 1172.8,
        "trend": 3.425018,
        "fair_value": 3.316829,
        "relative_strength": 1.609191,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.089226,
        "energy": 74.482773,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.664,
          3.594767,
          3.492091,
          3.456081
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 3.8,
        "volume": 1461,
        "typical_volume": 1172.5,
        "trend": 3.438639,
        "fair_value": 3.31534,
        "relative_strength": 5.305341,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.690658,
        "energy": 77.959454,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.72,
          3.640883,
          3.527177,
          3.480274
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 3.7,
        "volume": 633,
        "typical_volume": 1195.95,
        "trend": 3.447064,
        "fair_value": 3.313211,
        "relative_strength": 2.609188,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.992238,
        "energy": 65.473735,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.722667,
          3.659016,
          3.551415,
          3.497136
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 3.82,
        "volume": 1491,
        "typical_volume": 1234.6,
        "trend": 3.461352,
        "fair_value": 3.31185,
        "relative_strength": 5.526521,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.471333,
        "energy": 69.462007,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.758667,
          3.699455,
          3.585256,
          3.521196
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 3.7,
        "volume": 63,
        "typical_volume": 1125.1,
        "trend": 3.474745,
        "fair_value": 3.308838,
        "relative_strength": 0.704576,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.414043,
        "energy": 48.0723,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.748,
          3.711636,
          3.605185,
          3.536593
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 3.8,
        "volume": 2759,
        "typical_volume": 1257.3,
        "trend": 3.485882,
        "fair_value": 3.306467,
        "relative_strength": 1.150609,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.684836,
        "energy": 55.084008,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.764,
          3.736727,
          3.633167,
          3.557577
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}