{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff8ea38f-1f8f-4d69-9aa7-6d673c54210b", "symbol": "GEH", "name": "$ Goodwill", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.953, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 7.311, "architecture_energy": 10.033, "architecture_maturity": 32.343, "architecture_confidence": 52.759, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.07, "rotation_up": 24.87, "upward_expansion": 30.72, "deceleration": 70.44, "rotation_down": 44.56, "downward_expansion": 25.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.147267, 0.149909, 0.149171, 0.147813 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.147, "trend_reference": 0.147633, "distance_from_trend": -0.00429, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.158292, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071338, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.168397, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013423, "excess_performance": -0.168258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00429, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031277, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071338, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021826, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075001, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013423, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.918678, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6200, "relative_activity": 0.055982, "balance": 0.918678, "dry_up": 2.409255, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080063, "annualized_volatility": 0.611863, "from_high_reference": -0.205405, "from_low_reference": 0.324324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.147633, "fair_value_reference": 0.158292, "structural_low": 0.111, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.069468, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026683, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.145833, "worst_return": -0.006897, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.193939, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 0.19, "volume": 4925300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.0183, "energy": 54.381944, "activity_lines": [ 0.1576, 0.153545, 0.150371, 0.148951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.133, "volume": 554700, "typical_volume": 110570.0, "trend": 0.148267, "fair_value": 0.158418, "relative_strength": -28.372077, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.784216, "energy": 12.31275, "activity_lines": [ 0.149733, 0.150345, 0.149067, 0.147895 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.147, "volume": 6200, "typical_volume": 110750.0, "trend": 0.147633, "fair_value": 0.158292, "relative_strength": -21.168397, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.310942, "energy": 10.032856, "activity_lines": [ 0.147267, 0.149909, 0.149171, 0.147813 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }