{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff8f39b6-ce4f-4591-b5fc-f4db35b2cf9a", "symbol": "LGJP", "name": "L&G Japan Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.327, "architecture_energy": 47.371, "architecture_maturity": 58.694, "architecture_confidence": 76.589, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.05, "rotation_up": 44.45, "upward_expansion": 73.66, "deceleration": 91.43, "rotation_down": 28.85, "downward_expansion": 11.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.967467, 17.950582, 17.644076, 17.317424 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.450001, "trend_reference": 16.939067, "distance_from_trend": 0.089198, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.920872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325348, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.347854, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.120627, "excess_performance": -0.050265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089198, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055266, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325348, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051438, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013479, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120627, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.258581, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6889, "relative_activity": 0.204038, "balance": 4.258581, "dry_up": 0.851436, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026842, "annualized_volatility": 0.190307, "from_high_reference": -0.000975, "from_low_reference": 0.30223 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.939067, "fair_value_reference": 13.920872, "structural_low": 15.194, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.024445, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.019421, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.063974, "worst_return": -0.042513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018253, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.027513, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.159617, "worst_return": -0.047504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010228, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.03609, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083412, "worst_return": -0.061544, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002687, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053979, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013887, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014635, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08233, "active": false }, { "regime": 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36624.35, "trend": 16.687533, "fair_value": 13.793859, "relative_strength": -3.325945, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.707195, "energy": 56.813476, "activity_lines": [ 17.920133, 17.816546, 17.371, 17.084297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.785999, "volume": 39160, "typical_volume": 36511.3, "trend": 16.773533, "fair_value": 13.833385, "relative_strength": -1.385984, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.213267, "energy": 49.579651, "activity_lines": [ 17.846933, 17.837273, 17.4518, 17.155166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.694, "volume": 42208, "typical_volume": 36450.3, "trend": 16.855467, "fair_value": 13.874615, "relative_strength": -2.584834, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.390877, "energy": 35.508266, "activity_lines": [ 17.773333, 17.829418, 17.516067, 17.21455 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.450001, "volume": 6889, "typical_volume": 33763.25, "trend": 16.939067, "fair_value": 13.920872, "relative_strength": -1.347854, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.326816, "energy": 47.370741, "activity_lines": [ 17.967467, 17.950582, 17.644076, 17.317424 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }