{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff8fb1cd-6552-4d19-bfcb-a4ffe710fcf7", "symbol": "MOB", "name": "Moberg Pharma AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.845, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.396, "architecture_energy": 27.839, "architecture_maturity": 11.912, "architecture_confidence": 74.353, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.11, "rotation_up": 22.4, "upward_expansion": 14.8, "deceleration": 54.12, "rotation_down": 40.29, "downward_expansion": 64.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.580667, 9.526727, 9.885381, 10.040989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.99, "trend_reference": 10.073333, "distance_from_trend": -0.008273, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.568429, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.263732, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.979302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.091207, "excess_performance": 0.029713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008273, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004955, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.263732, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069793, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116333, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091207, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.424254, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 207217, "relative_activity": 0.60106, "balance": 0.424254, "dry_up": 0.467612, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075306, "annualized_volatility": 0.435519, "from_high_reference": -0.292493, "from_low_reference": 0.326693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.073333, "fair_value_reference": 13.568429, "structural_low": 8.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.009262, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": 0.006305, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.880795, "worst_return": -0.613217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00197, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.037449, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.397849, "worst_return": -0.507813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025179, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019472, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.623377, "worst_return": -0.626191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.077833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.119287, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104492, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10165, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027965, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": 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-9.28255, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.666273, "energy": 43.298375, "activity_lines": [ 9.466, 9.736182, 10.192048, 10.192731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.25, "volume": 160964, "typical_volume": 396666.8, "trend": 10.111, "fair_value": 13.538173, "relative_strength": -10.250495, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.789289, "energy": 36.088153, "activity_lines": [ 9.370667, 9.595091, 10.08219, 10.137075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.33, "volume": 150149, "typical_volume": 374303.5, "trend": 10.087333, "fair_value": 13.56828, "relative_strength": -10.66283, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.662581, "energy": 50.760642, "activity_lines": [ 9.358667, 9.496, 9.98519, 10.086688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.45, "volume": 126512, "typical_volume": 355207.1, "trend": 10.061, "fair_value": 13.568173, "relative_strength": -10.491411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.648924, "energy": 45.413615, "activity_lines": [ 9.380667, 9.453455, 9.904571, 10.04557 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.99, "volume": 207217, "typical_volume": 344752.35, "trend": 10.073333, "fair_value": 13.568429, "relative_strength": -6.979302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.396347, "energy": 27.838717, "activity_lines": [ 9.580667, 9.526727, 9.885381, 10.040989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }