{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff915fb6-3f81-448a-88b8-31e6739db5bd", "symbol": "LABD", "name": "DIREXION DAILY S&P BIOTECH BEAR 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.682, "architecture_energy": 58.953, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.964, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.19, "rotation_up": 27.4, "upward_expansion": 10.21, "deceleration": 59.52, "rotation_down": 51.32, "downward_expansion": 81.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.360667, 8.663682, 10.537129, 12.292879 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.57, "trend_reference": 14.49987, "distance_from_trend": -0.477926, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 67.344591, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.887593, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -70.765527, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.589712, "excess_performance": -0.715336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.477926, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228041, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.887593, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062233, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.707655, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013939, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.589712, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.112254, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62926548, "relative_activity": 1.541197, "balance": 1.112254, "dry_up": 1.39928, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.277421, "annualized_volatility": 0.880766, "from_high_reference": -0.887726, "from_low_reference": 0.133217 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.49987, "fair_value_reference": 67.344591, "structural_low": 6.6801, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.032213, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.042078, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.406803, "worst_return": -0.426222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.015585, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061944, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.392797, "worst_return": -0.536117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.295082, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.340542, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.876294, "worst_return": -0.719847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.77, "volume": 30236803, "typical_volume": 37401545.65, "trend": 15.294678, "fair_value": 69.059486, "relative_strength": -68.006695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.856992, "energy": 84.867234, "activity_lines": [ 8.138, 9.355653, 11.430988, 13.149916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.34, "volume": 45411562, "typical_volume": 38702107.75, "trend": 14.899392, "fair_value": 68.226257, "relative_strength": -64.589492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.962448, "energy": 59.932798, "activity_lines": [ 8.583333, 9.126394, 11.043216, 12.765743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.57, "volume": 62926548, "typical_volume": 40829665.65, "trend": 14.49987, "fair_value": 67.344591, "relative_strength": -70.765527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.682426, "energy": 58.952586, "activity_lines": [ 8.360667, 8.663682, 10.537129, 12.292879 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }