{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff94c508-1699-475a-929a-0edd2c8fa660", "symbol": "EUROBOND", "name": "EURO PANEL PRODUCTS LTD", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.295, "architecture_energy": 36.009, "architecture_maturity": 4.194, "architecture_confidence": 63.798, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.17, "rotation_up": 15.84, "upward_expansion": 21.04, "deceleration": 52.66, "rotation_down": 59.29, "downward_expansion": 48.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 162.962667, 166.815091, 171.108809, 169.905612 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 164.990005, "trend_reference": 169.641666, "distance_from_trend": -0.027421, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 180.932564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.088113, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.794068, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071995, "excess_performance": -0.028286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027421, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029819, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.088113, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097941, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068029, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071995, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.637049, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50154, "relative_activity": 1.310731, "balance": 1.637049, "dry_up": 0.918196, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083833, "annualized_volatility": 0.286222, "from_high_reference": -0.351709, "from_low_reference": 0.306334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 169.641666, "fair_value_reference": 180.932564, "structural_low": 126.300003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.005163, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001313, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06827, "worst_return": -0.057943, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.01184, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013209, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.158504, "worst_return": -0.134825, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.082086, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.052335, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.187296, "worst_return": -0.023124, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.237273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005475, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045089, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189206, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030688, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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33550, "typical_volume": 38971.0, "trend": 171.720999, "fair_value": 180.163589, "relative_strength": -6.396607, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.400155, "energy": 15.797344, "activity_lines": [ 173.221333, 176.266363, 173.764904, 172.0643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 164.970001, "volume": 31027, "typical_volume": 38945.75, "trend": 171.148666, "fair_value": 180.445448, "relative_strength": -10.164238, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.057147, "energy": 13.430278, "activity_lines": [ 170.061333, 173.919636, 173.352047, 171.628752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 161.610001, "volume": 26728, "typical_volume": 39877.1, "trend": 170.513333, "fair_value": 180.677564, "relative_strength": -9.638966, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.228036, "energy": 22.964416, "activity_lines": [ 166.659334, 171.152546, 172.619714, 171.013354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 158.289993, "volume": 32627, "typical_volume": 39886.35, "trend": 169.936666, "fair_value": 180.867884, "relative_strength": -13.327672, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.501495, "energy": 37.121021, "activity_lines": [ 163.265331, 168.152544, 171.569523, 170.224752 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 164.990005, "volume": 50154, "typical_volume": 38264.15, "trend": 169.641666, "fair_value": 180.932564, "relative_strength": -9.794068, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.295056, "energy": 36.009334, "activity_lines": [ 162.962667, 166.815091, 171.108809, 169.905612 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }