{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ff9b4abf-183a-43a5-99e4-56f0e06b0d13", "symbol": "PAL", "name": "Proficient Auto Logistics, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 62.585, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.785, "architecture_energy": 6.509, "architecture_maturity": 18.795, "architecture_confidence": 76.153, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.31, "rotation_up": 25.71, "upward_expansion": 31.55, "deceleration": 38.35, "rotation_down": 25.5, "downward_expansion": 42.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.051333, 7.046909, 6.802667, 6.829 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.34, "trend_reference": 7.192167, "distance_from_trend": 0.020555, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.692458, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.24271, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.534808, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.299618, "excess_performance": -0.487072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020555, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073075, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.24271, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.166409, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145348, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.207263, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.299618, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.225766, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 566141, "relative_activity": 0.362015, "balance": 1.225766, "dry_up": 0.605226, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133777, "annualized_volatility": 0.938676, "from_high_reference": -0.330902, "from_low_reference": 0.513402 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.192167, "fair_value_reference": 9.692458, "structural_low": 4.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.023116, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01713, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.368638, "worst_return": -0.048679, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.029574, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019443, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.029574, "worst_return": -0.029574, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.323246, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.489263, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.323246, "worst_return": -0.323246, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.368638, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.27641, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120643, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119476, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050204, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010526, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020862, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-10", "close": 15.0, "volume": 3970752, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 14.78, "volume": 714415, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, 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"energy": 10.897405, "activity_lines": [ 6.880667, 6.968, 6.737333, 6.824581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.34, "volume": 566141, "typical_volume": 1563859.9, "trend": 7.192167, "fair_value": 9.692458, "relative_strength": -14.534808, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.785377, "energy": 6.50856, "activity_lines": [ 7.051333, 7.046909, 6.802667, 6.829 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }