{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ffa17bb0-ef71-478a-a339-de24ea256a09", "symbol": "XMA", "name": "iShares S&P/TSX Capped Materials Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.747, "architecture_energy": 23.463, "architecture_maturity": 37.252, "architecture_confidence": 57.985, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.91, "rotation_up": 25.46, "upward_expansion": 16.96, "deceleration": 61.91, "rotation_down": 37.49, "downward_expansion": 64.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.507332, 41.232754, 42.402191, 43.547918 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.939999, "trend_reference": 45.10259, "distance_from_trend": 0.018567, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.933749, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.644606, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.717115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006933, "excess_performance": -0.127354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018567, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00745, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.644606, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14326, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017171, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117457, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006933, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.447, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 418500, "relative_activity": 0.648847, "balance": 0.447, "dry_up": 0.569931, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066616, "annualized_volatility": 0.521442, "from_high_reference": -0.174821, "from_low_reference": 0.604449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.10259, "fair_value_reference": 27.933749, "structural_low": 36.849998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.003956, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.007281, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.116949, "worst_return": -0.055114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.100208, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.068321, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.172224, "worst_return": -0.059315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.271667, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.191525, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.35364, "worst_return": -0.076799, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.116288, "energy": 67.055575, "activity_lines": [ 41.344637, 42.196547, 43.660037, 44.703808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.599998, "volume": 644900, "typical_volume": 741435.0, "trend": 45.256088, "fair_value": 27.482369, "relative_strength": -16.435656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.668278, "energy": 75.992811, "activity_lines": [ 39.987528, 41.205285, 42.953495, 44.200039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.099998, "volume": 147000, "typical_volume": 700420.0, "trend": 45.160128, "fair_value": 27.620615, "relative_strength": -11.320891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.456612, "energy": 63.543268, "activity_lines": [ 39.783332, 40.827909, 42.568827, 43.867388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.349998, "volume": 260000, "typical_volume": 656625.0, "trend": 45.081641, "fair_value": 27.756373, "relative_strength": -12.77902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.571316, "energy": 65.304473, "activity_lines": [ 39.501331, 40.392326, 42.154246, 43.49254 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.939999, "volume": 418500, "typical_volume": 644990.0, "trend": 45.10259, "fair_value": 27.933749, "relative_strength": -1.717115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.747356, "energy": 23.463136, "activity_lines": [ 41.507332, 41.232754, 42.402191, 43.547918 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }