{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ffb5eb4e-c865-4406-8232-406f46c05f9c", "symbol": "QCOM", "name": "Qualcomm Incorporated", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.599, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.955, "architecture_energy": 27.232, "architecture_maturity": 35.57, "architecture_confidence": 60.569, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.96, "rotation_up": 14.55, "upward_expansion": 15.88, "deceleration": 61.68, "rotation_down": 61.96, "downward_expansion": 43.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 164.224667, 175.214364, 186.374467, 177.997793 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 167.86, "trend_reference": 167.44879, "distance_from_trend": 0.002456, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 155.553395, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079115, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.337797, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.234828, "excess_performance": 0.047374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002456, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031556, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.079115, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.391562, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284436, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.234828, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.553166, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56733969, "relative_activity": 0.618674, "balance": 0.553166, "dry_up": 0.71436, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.185287, "annualized_volatility": 0.689836, "from_high_reference": -0.351737, "from_low_reference": 0.381233 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 167.44879, "fair_value_reference": 155.553395, "structural_low": 121.529074, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.092261, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.073163, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.013414, "worst_return": -0.112603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.131477, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.099601, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.049408, "worst_return": -0.213546, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.094608, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.119075, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.034043, "worst_return": -0.155172, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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192.194, 204.682658, 191.38547, 179.254308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 171.78, "volume": 67781207, "typical_volume": 92657461.0, "trend": 168.707615, "fair_value": 154.656093, "relative_strength": -6.337704, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.862478, "energy": 21.504728, "activity_lines": [ 183.278667, 197.462793, 191.123774, 179.448911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 166.97, "volume": 51495808, "typical_volume": 92891050.4, "trend": 168.505766, "fair_value": 154.948923, "relative_strength": -7.274725, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.833512, "energy": 16.388867, "activity_lines": [ 175.422667, 190.213513, 190.256967, 179.336807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 147.61, "volume": 86023409, "typical_volume": 94815142.7, "trend": 167.718961, "fair_value": 155.165569, "relative_strength": -18.184614, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.956312, "energy": 29.112232, "activity_lines": [ 165.056, 180.058028, 187.394956, 177.988693 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 167.86, "volume": 56733969, "typical_volume": 91702529.65, "trend": 167.44879, "fair_value": 155.553395, "relative_strength": -11.337797, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.95543, "energy": 27.232344, "activity_lines": [ 164.224667, 175.214364, 186.374467, 177.997793 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }