{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ffb938bd-06ff-4051-b7cf-93106b704d37", "symbol": "FDIS", "name": "FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST MSCI CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.576, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.166, "architecture_energy": 23.425, "architecture_maturity": 27.695, "architecture_confidence": 65.405, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.94, "rotation_up": 41.18, "upward_expansion": 65.79, "deceleration": 82.23, "rotation_down": 26.58, "downward_expansion": 12.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.688667, 101.596303, 101.494653, 100.620307 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 104.68, "trend_reference": 100.243578, "distance_from_trend": 0.044256, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 88.811185, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17868, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.321669, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.036167, "excess_performance": -0.089458, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044256, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000422, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17868, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019686, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073217, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005337, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036167, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.043887, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 349109, "relative_activity": 0.798824, "balance": 1.043887, "dry_up": 0.889061, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038192, "annualized_volatility": 0.207014, "from_high_reference": -0.021885, "from_low_reference": 0.166037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 100.243578, "fair_value_reference": 88.811185, "structural_low": 89.774162, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.018783, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.007699, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.084219, "worst_return": -0.133511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.086217, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.011463, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.215713, "worst_return": -0.132654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.101481, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.06465, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.220788, "worst_return": 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"energy": 18.537349, "activity_lines": [ 102.224044, 101.953298, 100.921615, 100.447908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 101.62, "volume": 321351, "typical_volume": 446191.5, "trend": 100.545686, "fair_value": 88.274114, "relative_strength": -7.060774, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.978535, "energy": 17.809405, "activity_lines": [ 102.08, 101.902857, 101.128893, 100.512755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 96.62, "volume": 377613, "typical_volume": 436319.55, "trend": 100.297885, "fair_value": 88.421737, "relative_strength": -10.849525, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.934637, "energy": 10.219933, "activity_lines": [ 100.279333, 100.973646, 100.849183, 100.259485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.52, "volume": 506108, "typical_volume": 441258.8, "trend": 100.309366, "fair_value": 88.603586, "relative_strength": -7.162856, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.381069, "energy": 12.589297, "activity_lines": [ 100.478, 100.990887, 101.038862, 100.338331 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.68, "volume": 349109, "typical_volume": 437028.7, "trend": 100.243578, "fair_value": 88.811185, "relative_strength": -7.321669, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.166473, "energy": 23.424703, "activity_lines": [ 101.688667, 101.596303, 101.494653, 100.620307 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }