{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ffba05bf-7361-4c23-8e72-08b7ea3f70ae", "symbol": "XEL", "name": "Xcel Energy Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.23, "architecture_energy": 10.497, "architecture_maturity": 27.072, "architecture_confidence": 70.237, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.95, "rotation_up": 26.97, "upward_expansion": 49.9, "deceleration": 81.87, "rotation_down": 33.13, "downward_expansion": 27.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.050667, 79.534387, 79.499093, 79.465407 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 78.07, "trend_reference": 79.019583, "distance_from_trend": -0.012017, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.904843, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202838, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.833794, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043767, "excess_performance": -0.143687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012017, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016715, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202838, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047329, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118338, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001268, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043767, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.246127, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26285703, "relative_activity": 1.035376, "balance": 0.246127, "dry_up": 1.014974, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 8 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045889, "annualized_volatility": 0.231586, "from_high_reference": -0.06198, "from_low_reference": 0.163303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.019583, "fair_value_reference": 64.904843, "structural_low": 73.850376, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.023914, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.010415, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.08722, "worst_return": -0.122916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.022811, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.055228, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 0.130532, "worst_return": -0.109672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.035289, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.074909, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.353214, "worst_return": 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23.336676, "activity_lines": [ 80.097643, 79.669919, 79.563141, 79.338073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.67, "volume": 20290930, "typical_volume": 24981938.05, "trend": 78.703064, "fair_value": 64.598696, "relative_strength": -3.023201, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.857196, "energy": 33.946102, "activity_lines": [ 80.650667, 80.091868, 79.762421, 79.548611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.2, "volume": 28471459, "typical_volume": 25346333.0, "trend": 78.856592, "fair_value": 64.750188, "relative_strength": -7.426475, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.448886, "energy": 8.096067, "activity_lines": [ 79.738, 79.804227, 79.62956, 79.516155 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.07, "volume": 26285703, "typical_volume": 25387595.45, "trend": 79.019583, "fair_value": 64.904843, "relative_strength": -11.833794, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.230058, "energy": 10.496856, "activity_lines": [ 79.050667, 79.534387, 79.499093, 79.465407 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }