{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ffbcaca3-6ffb-4f04-bfcc-a416b5a4d2ef", "symbol": "ONONN", "name": "ON HLDNG AG", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.655, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.63, "architecture_energy": 25.194, "architecture_maturity": 54.93, "architecture_confidence": 76.187, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.71, "rotation_up": 21.39, "upward_expansion": 4.02, "deceleration": 54.7, "rotation_down": 42.78, "downward_expansion": 70.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 645.266667, 647.010544, 647.167807, 656.359524 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 648.0, "trend_reference": 682.431997, "distance_from_trend": -0.050455, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 873.234847, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.257932, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.369339, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.143989, "excess_performance": -0.089323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050455, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07918, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.257932, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08004, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.2097, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.143989, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.336283, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 779, "relative_activity": 0.545423, "balance": 9.336283, "dry_up": 0.289865, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055461, "annualized_volatility": 0.445576, "from_high_reference": -0.299459, "from_low_reference": 0.184644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 682.431997, "fair_value_reference": 873.234847, "structural_low": 547.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037636, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.026465, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.082803, "worst_return": -0.045882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.075119, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.067018, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.075119, "worst_return": 0.075119, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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650.677999, 652.136724, 647.349997, 663.144297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 635.0, "volume": 402, "typical_volume": 1595.7, "trend": 690.831997, "fair_value": 875.533161, "relative_strength": -16.811735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.24973, "energy": 22.000325, "activity_lines": [ 645.9, 647.982725, 646.50733, 659.122878 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 648.0, "volume": 779, "typical_volume": 1428.25, "trend": 682.431997, "fair_value": 873.234847, "relative_strength": -14.369339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.629848, "energy": 25.194205, "activity_lines": [ 645.266667, 647.010544, 647.167807, 656.359524 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }