{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ffc30072-8b66-439b-984c-ab7f943d89a4", "symbol": "NPO", "name": "Enpro Industries", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.386, "architecture_energy": 19.649, "architecture_maturity": 67.386, "architecture_confidence": 90.386, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.29, "rotation_up": 20.56, "upward_expansion": 52.89, "deceleration": 93.87, "rotation_down": 28.67, "downward_expansion": 18.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 326.566667, 334.276909, 326.321326, 311.681515 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 332.98, "trend_reference": 292.332302, "distance_from_trend": 0.139046, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 192.700888, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.727963, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.910791, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.247232, "excess_performance": 0.121608, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.139046, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157179, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.727963, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033223, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.139108, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06886, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.247232, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.703835, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1256838, "relative_activity": 1.003123, "balance": 0.703835, "dry_up": 0.895496, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095035, "annualized_volatility": 0.375076, "from_high_reference": -0.147124, "from_low_reference": 0.654362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 292.332302, "fair_value_reference": 192.700888, "structural_low": 233.474465, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.029648, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.00044, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.166987, "worst_return": -0.119195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.04151, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.030954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.532638, "worst_return": -0.085869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.207889, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.067377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.271962, "worst_return": 0.004043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 322.68, "volume": 1103776, "typical_volume": 1253959.55, "trend": 282.135508, "fair_value": 188.973317, "relative_strength": 16.598521, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.468034, "energy": 42.972265, "activity_lines": [ 338.783333, 338.012843, 319.846331, 303.692157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 333.88, "volume": 1032075, "typical_volume": 1264019.1, "trend": 285.818102, "fair_value": 190.256058, "relative_strength": 20.588411, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.736632, "energy": 25.500371, "activity_lines": [ 333.542667, 338.340192, 323.061186, 307.030511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 313.92, "volume": 1095268, "typical_volume": 1250673.7, "trend": 288.991348, "fair_value": 191.408841, "relative_strength": 11.688084, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.036975, "energy": 22.244532, "activity_lines": [ 324.7, 334.630193, 323.958524, 308.843537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 332.98, "volume": 1256838, "typical_volume": 1252925.55, "trend": 292.332302, "fair_value": 192.700888, "relative_strength": 13.910791, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.386066, "energy": 19.648667, "activity_lines": [ 326.566667, 334.276909, 326.321326, 311.681515 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }