{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ffc453cc-8b10-406c-9443-4d8839c06f09", "symbol": "G14", "name": "Signify N.V.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.143, "architecture_energy": 87.913, "architecture_maturity": 16.452, "architecture_confidence": 83.792, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.93, "rotation_up": 8.06, "upward_expansion": 21.92, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 81.0, "downward_expansion": 97.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.224, 16.208, 17.65102, 17.869992 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.3, "trend_reference": 18.120522, "distance_from_trend": -0.155653, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.544305, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.217163, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.234525, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17666, "excess_performance": -0.241299, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155653, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.217163, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258904, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17666, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.75814, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6693, "relative_activity": 1.0445, "balance": 0.75814, "dry_up": 2.372051, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067873, "annualized_volatility": 0.390635, "from_high_reference": -0.299952, "from_low_reference": 0.103896 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.120522, "fair_value_reference": 19.544305, "structural_low": 13.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.068296, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.047945, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.198504, "worst_return": -0.164662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044255, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.032322, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.381091, "worst_return": -0.144996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.120211, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.038268, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188213, "worst_return": -0.14342, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.426613, "energy": 35.237208, "activity_lines": [ 18.382, 19.300909, 19.05492, 18.853561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.59, "volume": 11015, "typical_volume": 5016.65, "trend": 18.673063, "fair_value": 19.722543, "relative_strength": -16.829126, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.02965, "energy": 49.131262, "activity_lines": [ 17.517333, 18.74, 18.856571, 18.71397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.25, "volume": 3081, "typical_volume": 4452.3, "trend": 18.588522, "fair_value": 19.690568, "relative_strength": -17.289852, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.082732, "energy": 59.121136, "activity_lines": [ 16.830667, 18.166909, 18.637444, 18.557643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.55, "volume": 29101, "typical_volume": 5542.85, "trend": 18.436836, "fair_value": 19.634626, "relative_strength": -26.39092, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.400093, "energy": 95.643278, "activity_lines": [ 15.858, 17.348727, 18.265979, 18.297093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.78, "volume": 21924, "typical_volume": 6385.2, "trend": 18.263233, "fair_value": 19.583091, "relative_strength": -26.312178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.399025, "energy": 93.153845, "activity_lines": [ 15.382667, 16.678727, 17.92858, 18.061168 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.3, "volume": 6693, "typical_volume": 6407.85, "trend": 18.120522, "fair_value": 19.544305, "relative_strength": -25.234525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.143485, "energy": 87.91258, "activity_lines": [ 15.224, 16.208, 17.65102, 17.869992 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }