{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ffc6a483-6105-492b-bb22-70af82ef1695", "symbol": "NEP", "name": "NEP Realty and Industry Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.005, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.093, "architecture_energy": 42.859, "architecture_maturity": 13.232, "architecture_confidence": 88.89, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.94, "rotation_up": 15.9, "upward_expansion": 7.85, "deceleration": 42.08, "rotation_down": 55.2, "downward_expansion": 81.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.188, 0.19, 0.193714, 0.195978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.19, "trend_reference": 0.198, "distance_from_trend": -0.040404, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.213269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.109107, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.651428, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05, "excess_performance": -0.242325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040404, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024631, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.109107, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029733, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216514, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008717, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.350263, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 360400, "relative_activity": 1.113514, "balance": 3.350263, "dry_up": 0.915081, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072874, "annualized_volatility": 0.215222, "from_high_reference": -0.269231, "from_low_reference": 0.117647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.198, "fair_value_reference": 0.213269, "structural_low": 0.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.321429, "directional_follow_through": 0.392857, "median_excess_return": -0.004227, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.02381, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036026, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.277778, "worst_return": -0.365854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.121404, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.341463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086957, 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0.19, "volume": 1440900, "typical_volume": 314205.0, "trend": 0.199667, "fair_value": 0.214167, "relative_strength": -24.647638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.884338, "energy": 30.231489, "activity_lines": [ 0.193333, 0.195455, 0.197952, 0.198925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.19, "volume": 778100, "typical_volume": 340130.0, "trend": 0.199333, "fair_value": 0.213782, "relative_strength": -24.756595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.773731, "energy": 37.322982, "activity_lines": [ 0.192, 0.194182, 0.197, 0.198301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.18, "volume": 30600, "typical_volume": 322145.0, "trend": 0.198333, "fair_value": 0.213333, "relative_strength": -28.206803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.988697, "energy": 58.544339, "activity_lines": [ 0.187333, 0.191273, 0.19519, 0.197054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.19, "volume": 15600, "typical_volume": 318485.0, "trend": 0.198333, "fair_value": 0.213269, "relative_strength": -22.742495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.641994, "energy": 50.53379, "activity_lines": [ 0.187333, 0.190545, 0.194429, 0.196516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.19, "volume": 360400, "typical_volume": 323660.0, "trend": 0.198, "fair_value": 0.213269, "relative_strength": -21.651428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.092981, "energy": 42.859031, "activity_lines": [ 0.188, 0.19, 0.193714, 0.195978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }