{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ffcb7b6c-d1c8-439a-bdf5-d42f300a2649", "symbol": "ALATA", "name": "Atari SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.988, "architecture_energy": 11.965, "architecture_maturity": 23.113, "architecture_confidence": 66.25, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.78, "rotation_up": 35.67, "upward_expansion": 23.77, "deceleration": 42.58, "rotation_down": 13.91, "downward_expansion": 46.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.144266, 20.456527, 20.484405, 20.808333 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.799999, "trend_reference": 21.4885, "distance_from_trend": 0.061033, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.554199, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071442, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.0598, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.029787, "excess_performance": -0.083099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061033, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066337, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071442, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.19662, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.204123, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029787, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.719068, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10351, "relative_activity": 1.771037, "balance": 1.719068, "dry_up": 0.957679, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085108, "annualized_volatility": 0.471655, "from_high_reference": -0.264516, "from_low_reference": 0.302857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.4885, "fair_value_reference": 24.554199, "structural_low": 17.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.038876, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.044768, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.08062, "worst_return": -0.266771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.103713, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.132789, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.044643, "worst_return": -0.472705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.155039, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.210893, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11875, "worst_return": -0.576327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.236111, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.251624, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.308036, "worst_return": -0.373882, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025352, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104651, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07438, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.144737, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159533, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030508, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.145625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 26.6, "volume": 1470, "typical_volume": 4842.9, "trend": 27.773333, "fair_value": 56.375774, "relative_strength": -18.710888, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -55.690015, "energy": 56.48869, "activity_lines": [ 19.442667, 19.957964, 20.393657, 21.02677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.822001, "volume": 3344, "typical_volume": 5906.95, "trend": 21.815, "fair_value": 24.672372, "relative_strength": -21.050666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.086449, "energy": 34.120698, "activity_lines": [ 19.594, 19.875273, 20.289905, 20.888129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.5, "volume": 4470, "typical_volume": 5918.6, "trend": 21.685, "fair_value": 24.624808, "relative_strength": -17.993644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.69302, "energy": 18.147964, "activity_lines": [ 19.989867, 19.889964, 20.267762, 20.80329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.504999, "volume": 4224, "typical_volume": 5977.3, "trend": 21.541833, "fair_value": 24.582917, "relative_strength": -18.57375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.459941, "energy": 15.318199, "activity_lines": [ 20.264733, 19.952836, 20.260857, 20.727161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 10351, "typical_volume": 5844.6, "trend": 21.4885, "fair_value": 24.554199, "relative_strength": -11.0598, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.987572, "energy": 11.96503, "activity_lines": [ 21.144266, 20.456527, 20.484405, 20.808333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }