{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ffcc1ef1-ebb2-4ddf-a8cd-1367c8239bfd", "symbol": "EISR", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Emerging SRI PAB UCITS ETF EUR Distribution", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.209, "architecture_energy": 24.361, "architecture_maturity": 63.948, "architecture_confidence": 91.086, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.75, "rotation_up": 26.87, "upward_expansion": 58.09, "deceleration": 88.29, "rotation_down": 30.53, "downward_expansion": 19.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 125.973333, 127.029455, 125.892415, 123.247368 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 127.639999, "trend_reference": 120.204796, "distance_from_trend": 0.061854, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 101.437042, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258317, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.014784, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.102898, "excess_performance": 0.049586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061854, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055119, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258317, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010266, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040148, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09891, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102898, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.223761, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1530, "relative_activity": 1.27309, "balance": 2.223761, "dry_up": 1.520844, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036575, "annualized_volatility": 0.211865, "from_high_reference": -0.049732, "from_low_reference": 0.239384 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 120.204796, "fair_value_reference": 101.437042, "structural_low": 105.93303, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.007104, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.011483, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.087597, "worst_return": -0.041572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0232, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.020547, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.240461, "worst_return": -0.035907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020939, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028746, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.19462, "worst_return": -0.01354, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012331, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018653, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032067, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.06991, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 1207.35, "trend": 119.222158, "fair_value": 100.994013, "relative_strength": 6.65753, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.091016, "energy": 28.846652, "activity_lines": [ 126.466668, 127.49691, 125.06793, 122.388185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 124.599998, "volume": 3182, "typical_volume": 1235.3, "trend": 119.700496, "fair_value": 101.19727, "relative_strength": 4.17159, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.759015, "energy": 22.328088, "activity_lines": [ 125.544001, 126.991274, 125.369275, 122.735142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 127.639999, "volume": 1530, "typical_volume": 1201.8, "trend": 120.204796, "fair_value": 101.437042, "relative_strength": 4.014784, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.20873, "energy": 24.361054, "activity_lines": [ 125.973333, 127.029455, 125.892415, 123.247368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }