{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ffd17e68-a7c7-48bc-a6ce-8baea3558e3b", "symbol": "300157", "name": "New JCM Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.498, "architecture_energy": 38.1, "architecture_maturity": 84.666, "architecture_confidence": 81.389, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.42, "rotation_up": 27.71, "upward_expansion": 19.55, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 31.59, "downward_expansion": 64.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.188, 4.096364, 4.463905, 4.937204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.18, "trend_reference": 5.364667, "distance_from_trend": -0.220828, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.799872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.100037, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.388666, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.264085, "excess_performance": -0.271484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220828, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039795, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.100037, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.472104, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213887, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136546, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.264085, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.674404, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 288113492, "relative_activity": 1.286681, "balance": 1.674404, "dry_up": 2.041222, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121273, "annualized_volatility": 0.565676, "from_high_reference": -0.584906, "from_low_reference": 0.164345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.364667, "fair_value_reference": 3.799872, "structural_low": 3.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.00139, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018643, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.251101, "worst_return": -0.182573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.021472, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.019299, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.565854, "worst_return": -0.192308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029935, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.029341, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.517073, "worst_return": -0.283217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.135628, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044177, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006608, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070485, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.233918, 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.050887, "energy": 74.567272, "activity_lines": [ 3.948, 4.092909, 4.759571, 5.161677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.24, "volume": 633922124, "typical_volume": 259381030.9, "trend": 5.387, "fair_value": 3.787051, "relative_strength": -18.254566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.154743, "energy": 58.814099, "activity_lines": [ 4.053333, 4.078, 4.645286, 5.087118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.26, "volume": 359221674, "typical_volume": 237994336.85, "trend": 5.376667, "fair_value": 3.793526, "relative_strength": -16.180451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.636245, "energy": 45.921187, "activity_lines": [ 4.152667, 4.087273, 4.550952, 5.014409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.18, "volume": 288113492, "typical_volume": 223919829.3, "trend": 5.364667, "fair_value": 3.799872, "relative_strength": -21.388666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.498111, "energy": 38.099979, "activity_lines": [ 4.188, 4.096364, 4.463905, 4.937204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }